MTSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTSI - MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc
$372.15
-24.11 (-6.08%)
▼
5d:
-3.28%
30d:
-2.18%
90d:
+62.33%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTSI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTSI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$333.24
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$206.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTSI is currently trading at $372.15, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $359.73 to $391.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 54.4) compared to its historical average (45.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTSI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $333.15, while resistance sits at $401.69. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTSI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $333.15, while resistance sits at $401.69. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$359.73 -
$391.29
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($398.36)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.9% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$359.73 -
$391.29
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$333.15
Resistance Level
$401.69
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
54.37
Wall Street Target
$398.36
(+7.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.9%
Profit Margin
16.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.9% premium
PE vs Historical
54.4 vs 45.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$394.11
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$417.36
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$441.98
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 54→46)
PE COMPRESSION
$372.32
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 54.4, Growth: 36.2%)
$940.33
(+153%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 36.2%)
$376.69
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 36.2%)
$320.19
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (58x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (54x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 57.80 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.44
Bull Case
$449.37
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 60.7
Base Case
$372.15
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 57.8
Bear Case
$284.69
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 52.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-27
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
Robert Dennehy
SELL
18398 shares
2026-02-26
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