MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTSI - MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc
$234.53
4.80 (2.09%)
▲
5d:
-10.57%
30d:
-17.69%
90d:
-10.85%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MTSI is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MTSI is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$413.85
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$256.97
8.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTSI is currently trading at $234.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $256.01 to $315.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.0) compared to its historical average (42.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 166.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTSI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $227.27, while resistance sits at $336.14.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $390.33 (+69.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTSI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $227.27, while resistance sits at $336.14.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $390.33 (+69.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$256.01 -
$315.38
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MTSI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 69.9% below Wall St target ($390.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$256.01 -
$315.38
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$227.27
Resistance Level
$336.15
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.02
Wall Street Target
$390.33
(+69.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
166.7%
Profit Margin
20.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.0 vs 42.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$206.76
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$186.08
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$167.47
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→43)
$265.24
(+16%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.0, Growth: 54.2%)
$775.34
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 54.2%)
$569.79
(+148%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 54.2%)
$484.32
(+111%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 32.26 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.12
Bull Case
$277.40
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 33.9
Base Case
$229.73
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 32.3
Bear Case
$175.74
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.0 to 42.8
Stabilization Target:
$363.83
(+58.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+58.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 10:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MTSI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTSI price and gamma walls.
