MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTSI - MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc
$274.90
2.47 (0.91%)
â˛
5d:
+5.75%
30d:
-11.54%
90d:
-26.65%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MTSI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -9.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MTSI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -9.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
MTSI is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today
SOXX Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.83% over the next 20 trading days; MTSI has been on it 3 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-09-11.
See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$412.73
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$256.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTSI is currently trading at $274.90, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $259.79 to $300.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 32.4) compared to its historical average (44.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 166.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTSI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $244.86, while resistance sits at $287.83.
Market Sentiment: MTSI scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $395.33 (+43.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTSI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $244.86, while resistance sits at $287.83.
Market Sentiment: MTSI scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $395.33 (+43.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$259.79 -
$300.51
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MTSI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.8% below Wall St target ($395.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$259.79 -
$300.51
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$244.86
Resistance Level
$287.84
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.43
Wall Street Target
$395.33
(+43.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
166.7%
Profit Margin
20.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
32.4 vs 44.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$247.96
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$223.66
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$201.74
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32â44)
$275.61
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.4, Growth: 53.8%)
$927.79
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 53.8%)
$577.11
(+110%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 53.8%)
$490.54
(+78%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 33.44 | Forward EPS (Implied): $8.22
Bull Case
$331.94
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 35.1
Base Case
$274.90
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 33.4
Bear Case
$210.30
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 30.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 32.4 to 44.3
Stabilization Target:
$375.56
(+36.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 2:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-27
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTSI price and gamma walls.
