MTSI
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc
SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
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MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$240.63
-9.24 (-3.70%)
▼
5d:
+26.41%
30d:
-17.4%
90d:
-23.96%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (86%)
Quality Score
62/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$223.59 – $304.76
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
29.3x
CHEAP
vs 41.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$327.00
+30.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$186.59 / $258.83
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MTSI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -11.3% annual earnings decline despite 197% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
MTSI is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today
SOXX Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 1.9% over the next 20 trading days; MTSI has been on it 4 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-11-12.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$415.59
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$258.05
6.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTSI is currently trading at $240.62, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $223.59 to $304.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 29.3) compared to its historical average (41.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 197.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTSI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $186.59, while resistance sits at $258.83. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: MTSI scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $327.00 (+30.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTSI is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $186.59, while resistance sits at $258.83. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: MTSI scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $327.00 (+30.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$223.59 -
$304.76
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$223.59 -
$304.76
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$186.59
Resistance Level
$258.83
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.9% below Wall St target ($327.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 74/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.27
Wall Street Target
$327.00
(+30.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
62.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
197.3%
Profit Margin
25.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
29.3 vs 41.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$224.87
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$202.39
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$182.15
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→42)
$260.75
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.3, Growth: 54.8%)
$843.28
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 54.8%)
$572.18
(+129%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 54.8%)
$486.35
(+95%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 33.56 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.45
Bull Case
$301.71
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 35.2
Base Case
$249.86
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 33.6
Bear Case
$191.14
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 30.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.3 to 41.9
Stabilization Target:
$357.68
(+43.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+43.2%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MTSI)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Conestoga Capital mentioned MTSI as one of its top performers in Q3 2026, driving bullish sentiment on the stock. The firm highlighted MACOM Technology Solutions' role as a provider of analog semiconductor solutions for wireless and wireline applications.
Key Retail Themes:
Strong performance in Q3 2026
Growing demand for high-speed optical data-center infrastructure
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 10:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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