MWA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MWA - Mueller Water Products, Inc.
$25.79
0.55 (2.18%)
▲
5d:
+2.5%
30d:
+3.28%
90d:
-5.84%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MWA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MWA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.21
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MWA is currently trading at $25.79, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.75 to $25.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.1) is in line with its historical norms (17.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MWA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+22.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MWA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+22.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$24.75 -
$25.95
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.8% below Wall St target ($31.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.75 -
$25.95
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.72
Resistance Level
$26.15
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.07
Wall Street Target
$31.00
(+22.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.4%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 17.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.58
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$23.94
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$23.32
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$25.25
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 6.4%)
$39.21
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 6.4%)
$30.39
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 6.4%)
$25.83
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.31
Bull Case
$32.91
(+30%)
Analyst growth 19.9%, PE expands to 21.0
Base Case
$29.92
(+19%)
Market implied 19.9%, PE stable at 19.1
Bear Case
$16.97
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.1 to 17.4
Stabilization Target:
$27.33
(+8.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MWA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Todd P Helms
SELL
10720 shares
2026-03-17
Gregg C Sengstack
BUY
25000 shares
2026-02-25
Todd P Helms
SELL
10720 shares
2026-02-19
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