Mueller Water Products (MWA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MWA - Mueller Water Products, Inc.
$21.66
0.16 (0.74%)
▲
5d:
+0.14%
30d:
-9.07%
90d:
-14.56%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MWA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MWA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.41
Based on 2.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MWA is currently trading at $21.66, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.75 to $24.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.7) compared to its historical average (16.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 30.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MWA scores 87/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.50 (+36.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MWA scores 87/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.50 (+36.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$21.75 -
$24.31
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (87/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.2% below Wall St target ($29.50)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 23% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.75 -
$24.31
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.90
Resistance Level
$22.29
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.65
Wall Street Target
$29.50
(+36.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.3%
Profit Margin
15.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 16.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.19
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$18.81
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$17.54
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$21.71
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 1.1%)
$33.48
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 1.1%)
$22.41
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 1.1%)
$19.04
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.42
Bull Case
$26.43
(+22%)
Analyst growth 11.7%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$24.03
(+11%)
Market implied 11.7%, PE stable at 15.1
Bear Case
$14.62
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 16.9
Stabilization Target:
$26.82
(+23.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MWA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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