MWA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MWA - Mueller Water Products, Inc.
$25.18
0.10 (0.40%)
▲
5d:
-1.91%
30d:
-7.53%
90d:
-14.76%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MWA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MWA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.46
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MWA is currently trading at $25.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.22 to $27.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.9) is in line with its historical norms (17.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $24.18, while resistance sits at $25.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.20 (+27.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $24.18, while resistance sits at $25.99.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.20 (+27.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$25.22 -
$27.54
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.9% below Wall St target ($32.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.22 -
$27.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.18
Resistance Level
$25.99
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.94
Wall Street Target
$32.20
(+27.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.4%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 17.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.30
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$23.45
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$22.63
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$25.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 6.9%)
$42.29
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 6.9%)
$30.76
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 6.9%)
$26.15
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.32
Bull Case
$33.80
(+33%)
Analyst growth 19.7%, PE expands to 21.4
Base Case
$30.73
(+21%)
Market implied 19.7%, PE stable at 19.5
Bear Case
$17.46
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 17.7
Stabilization Target:
$27.97
(+11.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 5:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MWA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Todd P Helms
SELL
10720 shares
2026-03-17
Gregg C Sengstack
BUY
25000 shares
2026-02-25
Todd P Helms
SELL
10720 shares
2026-02-19
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