MWA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MWA - Mueller Water Products, Inc.
$25.63
-0.26 (-1.00%)
▼
5d:
-0.62%
30d:
+2.03%
90d:
-8.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MWA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MWA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.25
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.51
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MWA is currently trading at $25.63, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.15 to $25.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.2) is in line with its historical norms (17.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MWA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.20 (+25.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MWA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.20 (+25.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$25.15 -
$25.88
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.6% below Wall St target ($32.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.15 -
$25.88
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.18
Resistance Level
$26.29
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.22
Wall Street Target
$32.20
(+25.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.4%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 17.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.96
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$24.31
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$23.68
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$25.69
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.9%)
$42.04
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 6.9%)
$31.31
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 6.9%)
$26.61
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.32
Bull Case
$34.09
(+33%)
Analyst growth 19.7%, PE expands to 21.6
Base Case
$30.99
(+21%)
Market implied 19.7%, PE stable at 19.6
Bear Case
$17.61
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.2 to 17.6
Stabilization Target:
$27.81
(+8.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MWA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Todd P Helms
SELL
10720 shares
2026-03-17
Gregg C Sengstack
BUY
25000 shares
2026-02-25
Todd P Helms
SELL
10720 shares
2026-02-19
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