Mueller Water Products (MWA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MWA - Mueller Water Products, Inc.
$22.27
0.41 (1.88%)
â˛
5d:
+2.86%
30d:
+2.53%
90d:
-11.03%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MWA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MWA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -5.3% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.12
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.74
29.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MWA is currently trading at $22.27, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.30 to $22.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.2) compared to its historical average (16.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 30.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MWA scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.00 (+21.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.32. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MWA scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.00 (+21.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$21.30 -
$22.91
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.2% below Wall St target ($27.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.30 -
$22.91
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.21
Resistance Level
$22.33
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.17
Wall Street Target
$27.00
(+21.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.3%
Profit Margin
15.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 16.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.09
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$19.97
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$18.91
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14â17)
$22.29
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 43.5%)
$31.62
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 43.5%)
$22.56
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 43.5%)
$19.18
(-14%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.42
Bull Case
$26.62
(+20%)
Analyst growth 10.7%, PE expands to 16.9
Base Case
$24.20
(+9%)
Market implied 10.7%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$14.86
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 16.7
Stabilization Target:
$26.25
(+17.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MWA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL
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