MWA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MWA - Mueller Water Products, Inc.
$24.94
-0.19 (-0.76%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.35%
30d:
+0.24%
90d:
-0.72%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MWA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MWA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.31
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MWA is currently trading at $24.94, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.90 to $26.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.6) compared to its historical average (17.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 30.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+24.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+24.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$24.90 -
$26.16
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.3% below Wall St target ($31.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.90 -
$26.16
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.43
Resistance Level
$26.63
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.55
Wall Street Target
$31.00
(+24.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.3%
Profit Margin
15.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 17.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.07
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$23.22
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$22.41
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16â17)
$24.93
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 2.2%)
$34.35
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 2.2%)
$26.62
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.2, Growth: 2.2%)
$22.63
(-9%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$31.44
(+26%)
Analyst growth 13.7%, PE expands to 19.6
Base Case
$28.58
(+15%)
Market implied 13.7%, PE stable at 17.8
Bear Case
$17.09
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 17.3
Stabilization Target:
$27.74
(+11.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 4:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MWA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Todd P Helms
SELL
10720 shares
2026-03-17
Gregg C Sengstack
BUY
25000 shares
2026-02-25
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