MWA
Mueller Water Products, Inc.
MISCELLANEOUS FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS
Mueller Water Products (MWA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$24.23
-0.13 (-0.53%)
▼
5d:
+0.79%
30d:
+11.5%
90d:
-5.02%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (26%)
Quality Score
25/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$21.35 – $23.15
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
15.4x
FAIR
vs 16.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$27.83
+14.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$22.12 / $25.62
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MWA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.81
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.55
23.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MWA is currently trading at $24.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.35 to $23.15. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (16.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.12, while resistance sits at $25.62.
Market Sentiment: MWA scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.83 (+14.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.12, while resistance sits at $25.62.
Market Sentiment: MWA scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.83 (+14.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.35 -
$23.15
Company Quality Score
25/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$21.35 -
$23.15
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$22.12
Resistance Level
$25.62
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($27.83)
- WARNING: Composite score 25/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.42
Wall Street Target
$27.83
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.9%
Profit Margin
15.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 16.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.65
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$23.08
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$22.53
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$24.26
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 43.5%)
$31.62
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 43.5%)
$24.55
(+1%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 43.5%)
$20.87
(-14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$29.87
(+23%)
Analyst growth 11.5%, PE expands to 19.0
Base Case
$27.16
(+12%)
Market implied 11.5%, PE stable at 17.3
Bear Case
$16.56
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 16.6
Stabilization Target:
$26.09
(+7.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.7%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MWA)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 15, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish trader on StockTwits holds a significant position in $MWA, expressing confidence in the stock's upward trajectory.
Key Retail Themes:
Bullish individual investor sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 5:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MWA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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