MWA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MWA - Mueller Water Products, Inc.
$24.60
-0.32 (-1.28%)
▼
5d:
-2.96%
30d:
-4.02%
90d:
-17.14%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
19d
Get Alerted When MWA Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MWA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MWA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.17
Based on 5.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MWA is currently trading at $24.60, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.02 to $26.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.7) compared to its historical average (17.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MWA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+26.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MWA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+26.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$25.02 -
$26.20
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.0% below Wall St target ($31.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.02 -
$26.20
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.18
Resistance Level
$26.29
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.69
Wall Street Target
$31.00
(+26.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.4%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 17.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.74
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$22.91
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$22.11
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$24.65
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.2%)
$40.85
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 6.2%)
$29.43
(+20%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 6.2%)
$25.02
(+2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.32
Bull Case
$32.55
(+32%)
Analyst growth 18.7%, PE expands to 20.8
Base Case
$29.59
(+20%)
Market implied 18.7%, PE stable at 18.9
Bear Case
$16.95
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.7 to 17.5
Stabilization Target:
$27.43
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 1:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:31 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MWA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Todd P Helms
SELL
10720 shares
2026-03-17
Gregg C Sengstack
BUY
25000 shares
2026-02-25
Todd P Helms
SELL
10720 shares
2026-02-19
Top Rated Specialty Industrial Machinery Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Specialty Industrial Machinery by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
GEV
GE Vernova LLC |
STRONG BUY
32 analysts |
$1223 | 61 BUY |
|
EMR
Emerson Electric Company |
STRONG BUY
30 analysts |
$164 | 59 HOLD |
|
ETN
Eaton Corporation PLC |
STRONG BUY
29 analysts |
$456 | 57 HOLD |
|
PH
Parker-Hannifin Corporat… |
STRONG BUY
26 analysts |
$1041 | 56 HOLD |
|
ROK
Rockwell Automation Inc |
HOLD
29 analysts |
$469 | 61 BUY |
