Mueller Water Products (MWA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MWA - Mueller Water Products, Inc.
$23.94
0.25 (1.06%)
▲
5d:
+0.17%
30d:
-8.52%
90d:
-6.56%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MWA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MWA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.94
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MWA is currently trading at $23.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.05 to $26.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.9) compared to its historical average (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 30.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+29.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MWA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+29.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$24.05 -
$26.07
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.5% below Wall St target ($31.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.05 -
$26.07
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.35
Resistance Level
$24.91
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.93
Wall Street Target
$31.00
(+29.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.3%
Profit Margin
15.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.9 vs 17.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.86
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$21.83
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$20.85
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$23.88
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 2.2%)
$34.52
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.9, Growth: 2.2%)
$25.55
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 2.2%)
$21.72
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.40
Bull Case
$29.85
(+25%)
Analyst growth 14.5%, PE expands to 18.6
Base Case
$27.13
(+13%)
Market implied 14.5%, PE stable at 16.9
Bear Case
$16.11
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.9 to 17.1
Stabilization Target:
$27.42
(+14.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is MWA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Todd P Helms
SELL
10720 shares
2026-03-17
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