MZTI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MZTI - The Marzetti Company Common Stock
$106.87
-0.74 (-0.69%)
▼
5d:
-0.3%
30d:
-7.99%
90d:
-17.97%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 20, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MZTI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MZTI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$175.42
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.92
1.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MZTI is currently trading at $106.87, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $107.51 to $114.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.8) compared to its historical average (18.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MZTI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $105.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MZTI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $159.40 (+49.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MZTI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $105.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MZTI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $159.40 (+49.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$107.51 -
$114.24
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 49.2% below Wall St target ($159.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$107.51 -
$114.24
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.54
Resistance Level
$112.98
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.81
Wall Street Target
$159.40
(+49.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.4%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 18.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$99.07
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$91.84
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$85.13
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→19)
$106.95
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 7.0%)
$183.37
(+72%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 7.0%)
$130.97
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 7.0%)
$111.32
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.18
Bull Case
$138.25
(+29%)
Analyst growth 16.8%, PE expands to 19.2
Base Case
$125.68
(+18%)
Market implied 16.8%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$73.17
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.8 to 18.6
Stabilization Target:
$134.25
(+25.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MZTI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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