MZTI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MZTI - The Marzetti Company Common Stock
$108.99
4.27 (4.08%)
▲
5d:
+0.28%
30d:
-3.35%
90d:
-23.78%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MZTI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MZTI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$179.38
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$111.38
2.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MZTI is currently trading at $108.99, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $107.35 to $113.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (19.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MZTI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $105.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $159.40 (+46.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MZTI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $105.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $159.40 (+46.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$107.35 -
$113.32
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 46.3% below Wall St target ($159.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$107.35 -
$113.32
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.80
Resistance Level
$115.84
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.10
Wall Street Target
$159.40
(+46.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.4%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 19.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$100.71
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$93.05
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$85.98
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→19)
$109.33
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.6%)
$190.53
(+75%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 6.6%)
$132.09
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 6.6%)
$112.28
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.39
Bull Case
$133.26
(+22%)
Analyst growth 13.0%, PE expands to 18.5
Base Case
$121.14
(+11%)
Market implied 13.0%, PE stable at 16.8
Bear Case
$72.93
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.1 to 19.2
Stabilization Target:
$138.59
(+27.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MZTI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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