NCNO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NCNO - nCino, Inc. Common Stock
$17.52
0.12 (0.69%)
▲
5d:
-2.99%
30d:
+18.86%
90d:
+2.28%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 25, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NCNO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NCNO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.12
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.08
3.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NCNO is currently trading at $17.52, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.70 to $17.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.1) is in line with its historical norms (18.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 147.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCNO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NCNO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.36 (+33.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCNO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NCNO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.36 (+33.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.70 -
$17.16
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.4% below Wall St target ($23.36)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.70 -
$17.16
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.52
Resistance Level
$17.36
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.07
Wall Street Target
$23.36
(+33.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
147.6%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.1 vs 18.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.98
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$16.45
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$15.94
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→19)
$17.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.5%)
$32.64
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.1, Growth: 13.5%)
$25.59
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.5, Growth: 13.5%)
$21.75
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 14.60 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.20
Bull Case
$21.16
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$17.52
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$13.40
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.1 to 18.7
Stabilization Target:
$19.19
(+9.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 15, 2026 8:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NCNO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
13
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeanette Sellers
SELL
1873 shares
2026-04-14
Sean Desmond
SELL
15440 shares
2026-04-06
Gregory Orenstein
SELL
8840 shares
2026-04-02
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NCNO price and gamma walls.
