nCino (NCNO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NCNO - nCino, Inc. Common Stock
$18.68
-0.67 (-3.46%)
▼
5d:
-3.76%
30d:
-18.64%
90d:
+2.98%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 25, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NCNO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NCNO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.58
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NCNO is currently trading at $18.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.45 to $22.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.2) is in line with its historical norms (19.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 147.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCNO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.66, while resistance sits at $21.41. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: NCNO scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.27 (+29.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCNO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.66, while resistance sits at $21.41. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: NCNO scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.27 (+29.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$19.45 -
$22.65
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NCNO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 29.9% below Wall St target ($24.27)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 35% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.45 -
$22.65
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.67
Resistance Level
$21.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.20
Wall Street Target
$24.27
(+29.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
147.6%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.2 vs 19.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.42
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$18.16
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$17.91
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$18.69
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.5%)
$30.57
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.2, Growth: 13.5%)
$27.28
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: 13.5%)
$23.19
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 24.81 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.75
Bull Case
$22.56
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 26.1
Base Case
$18.68
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 24.8
Bear Case
$14.29
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 22.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.2 to 19.0
Stabilization Target:
$19.50
(+4.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 04, 2026 9:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NCNO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeanette Sellers
SELL
1873 shares
2026-04-14
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Advanced NCNO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NCNO price and gamma walls.
