NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP (NGL) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGL - NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP
$16.29
0.69 (4.42%)
▲
5d:
+7.88%
30d:
-12.84%
90d:
+8.6%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NGL is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NGL is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.63
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.15
5.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGL is currently trading at $16.29, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.63 to $18.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.9) compared to its historical average (17.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: NGL scores 93/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: NGL scores 93/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.63 -
$18.03
Company Quality Score
72/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (93/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.4%)
- BEARISH: Trading 69.3% above Wall St target ($5.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 25% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.63 -
$18.03
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.50
Resistance Level
$16.58
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.87
Wall Street Target
$5.00
(-69.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
59.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1128.6%
Profit Margin
-3.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.7% premium
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 17.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.06
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$17.86
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$18.70
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.28
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 141.2%)
$56.46
(+247%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 141.2%)
$54.98
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 141.2%)
$46.73
(+187%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 10:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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