NGL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGL - NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP
$15.49
0.94 (6.46%)
▲
5d:
+3.27%
30d:
-2.27%
90d:
+14.4%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NGL trades at premium valuation expecting 5.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: NGL trades at premium valuation expecting 5.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.87
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.06
3.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGL is currently trading at $15.49, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.31 to $16.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.9) compared to its historical average (16.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: NGL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: NGL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $5.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$15.31 -
$16.18
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.5%)
- BEARISH: Trading 67.7% above Wall St target ($5.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.1% growth with -13.3% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.31 -
$16.18
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.12
Resistance Level
$17.92
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.89
Wall Street Target
$5.00
(-67.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.1%
Profit Margin
-4.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.1% premium
PE vs Historical
18.9 vs 16.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.28
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$17.11
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$17.98
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.42
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 141.2%)
$60.28
(+289%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.9, Growth: 141.2%)
$52.28
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.1, Growth: 141.2%)
$44.44
(+187%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 1:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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