NGVC
NATURAL GROCERS BY VITAMIN COTTAGE, INC
RETAIL-GROCERY STORES
NGVC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$29.15
-0.22 (-0.75%)
▼
5d:
-1.52%
30d:
-3.67%
90d:
+4.03%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
57/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$28.96 – $30.79
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
12.6x
FAIR
vs 12.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$42.25
+44.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$27.93 / $30.45
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NGVC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.30
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGVC is currently trading at $29.15, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.96 to $30.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.6) is in line with its historical norms (12.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGVC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.93, while resistance sits at $30.45.
Market Sentiment: NGVC scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.25 (+44.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGVC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.93, while resistance sits at $30.45.
Market Sentiment: NGVC scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.25 (+44.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$28.96 -
$30.79
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$28.96 -
$30.79
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$27.93
Resistance Level
$30.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (76/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.9% below Wall St target ($42.25)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 76/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.55
Wall Street Target
$42.25
(+44.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.0%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 12.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.12
(0%)
2-Year Target
$29.09
(0%)
3-Year Target
$29.06
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$29.19
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.3%)
$61.89
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 10.3%)
$39.10
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 10.3%)
$33.23
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.05
Bull Case
$36.61
(+26%)
Analyst growth 13.3%, PE expands to 15.8
Base Case
$33.29
(+14%)
Market implied 13.3%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$19.97
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.5 to 12.6
Stabilization Target:
$29.27
(+0.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.4%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NGVC)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jun 23, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Natural Grocers is offering discounts of up to 43% on summer essentials for Fourth of July celebrations, as mentioned in a recent press release.
Key Retail Themes:
Natural Grocers' discounts for Fourth of July
Savings on summer essentials and picnic-ready favorites
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGVC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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