What is the fair value of NIO stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for NIO to be between $4.56 and $4.87. The current price is $4.63.

What is the analyst price target for NIO?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for NIO is $7.38. This implies a potential upside of 59.4% from current levels.

NIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

NIO - NIO Inc. American depositary shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share

Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies

$4.63

0.10 (2.21%) ▲

5d: +2.43%

30d: -0.22%

90d: -17.32%

BUY

HIGH Confidence

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Sep 01, 2026 9d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 19, 2026 at $4.57 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026

Strength: 5.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NIO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$10.75

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$6.67

30.6% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: NIO is currently trading at $4.63, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.56 to $4.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.9) compared to its historical average (4.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, NIO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.45, while resistance sits at $4.82.

Market Sentiment: NIO scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.38 (+59.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $4.56 - $4.87

Company Quality Score 74/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 90.5%

All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 59.4% below Wall St target ($7.38)
BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 70/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $4.56 - $4.87

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $4.45

Resistance Level $4.82

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 3.94

Wall Street Target $7.38 (+59.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 112.2%

Profit Margin -9.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -5.9% cheaper

PE vs Historical 3.9 vs 4.7 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -5.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $4.36 (-6%)

2-Year Target $4.10 (-12%)

3-Year Target $3.86 (-17%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 4→5) $4.60 (-1%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 166.5%) $79.54 (+1618%)

Base: (SPY PE: 3.9, Growth: 166.5%) $15.63 (+238%)

Bear: (PE: 3.4, Growth: 166.5%) $13.28 (+187%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.9 to 4.7

Stabilization Target: $5.52 (+19.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +19.2%

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 2:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:24 PM

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Advanced NIO Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NIO price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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NIO Inc. American depositary shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share

Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies

About

Nio is a leading electric vehicle maker, targeting the premium segment. Founded in November 2014, Nio designs, develops, jointly manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. The company differentiates itself through continuous technological breakthroughs and innovations such as battery swapping and autonomous driving technologies. Nio launched its first model, its ES8 seven-seater electric SUV, in December 2017, and began deliveries in June 2018. Its current model portfolio includes midsize to large sedans and SUVs. It sold around 222,000 EVs in 2024, accounting for about 2% of the China passenger new energy vehicle market.

Exchange: XNYS

Market Cap: $18,850,940,188

Employees: 45,635

Listed Since: 2018-09-12

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001736541

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