NIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NIO - NIO Inc. American depositary shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$4.88
0.04 (0.83%)
▲
5d:
+8.69%
30d:
-1.81%
90d:
-23.63%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 01, 2026
29d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NIO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NIO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.96
29.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NIO is currently trading at $4.88, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.71 to $5.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.2) compared to its historical average (4.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NIO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NIO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.39 (+51.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NIO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NIO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.39 (+51.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.71 -
$5.00
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.3% below Wall St target ($7.39)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.71 -
$5.00
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.47
Resistance Level
$4.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.16
Wall Street Target
$7.39
(+51.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
112.2%
Profit Margin
-9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.2 vs 4.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.62
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$4.38
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$4.14
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$4.89
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 166.5%)
$82.16
(+1584%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.2, Growth: 166.5%)
$16.47
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.5, Growth: 166.5%)
$14.00
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.2 to 4.9
Stabilization Target:
$5.75
(+17.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 12:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NIO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NIO price and gamma walls.
