Is NIO stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, NIO is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: NIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of NIO stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for NIO to be between $3.41 and $3.63. The current price is $3.36.

What is the analyst price target for NIO?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for NIO is $6.28. This implies a potential upside of 87.1% from current levels.

NIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

NIO - NIO Inc. American depositary shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share

Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies

$3.36

-0.07 (-2.04%) ▼

5d: -1.47%

30d: -9.68%

90d: -27.59%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your NIO Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 24, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 12, 2026 at $3.47 · last confirmed Oct 19, 2026

Strength: 4.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$5.25

Based on 7.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$3.26

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: NIO is currently trading at $3.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.41 to $3.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.0) compared to its historical average (4.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, NIO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: NIO scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.28 (+87.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $3.41 - $3.63

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 87.1% below Wall St target ($6.28)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $3.41 - $3.63

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $3.31

Resistance Level $3.63

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 3.95

Wall Street Target $6.28 (+87.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 69.1%

Profit Margin -4.2%

Valuation Discount vs History -3.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 4.0 vs 4.4 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -3.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $3.24 (-4%)

2-Year Target $3.12 (-7%)

3-Year Target $3.00 (-11%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 4→4) $3.35 (0%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.9 to 4.4

Stabilization Target: $3.75 (+11.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +11.5%

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 8:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:47 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced NIO Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NIO price and gamma walls.

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NIO Inc. American depositary shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share

Motor Vehicles & Passenger Car Bodies

About

Nio is a leading electric vehicle maker, targeting the premium segment. Founded in November 2014, Nio designs, develops, jointly manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles. The company differentiates itself through continuous technological breakthroughs and innovations such as battery swapping and autonomous driving technologies. Nio launched its first model, its ES8 seven-seater electric SUV, in December 2017, and began deliveries in June 2018. Its current model portfolio includes midsize to large sedans and SUVs. It sold around 222,000 EVs in 2024, accounting for about 2% of the China passenger new energy vehicle market.

Exchange: XNYS

Market Cap: $18,850,940,188

Employees: 45,635

Listed Since: 2018-09-12

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001736541

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