NIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NIO - NIO Inc. American depositary shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$4.88
-0.11 (-2.20%)
▼
5d:
+2.09%
30d:
-2.59%
90d:
-28.97%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 17, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 01, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NIO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NIO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.66
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.24
32.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NIO is currently trading at $4.88, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.84 to $5.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.2) compared to its historical average (5.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NIO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.72, while resistance sits at $5.21.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.36 (+50.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NIO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.72, while resistance sits at $5.21.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.36 (+50.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$4.84 -
$5.17
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.8% below Wall St target ($7.36)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.84 -
$5.17
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.72
Resistance Level
$5.21
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.16
Wall Street Target
$7.36
(+50.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
112.2%
Profit Margin
-9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.2 vs 5.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.57
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$4.28
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$4.01
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$4.93
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 166.5%)
$83.27
(+1606%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.2, Growth: 166.5%)
$16.47
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.5, Growth: 166.5%)
$14.00
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.2 to 5.1
Stabilization Target:
$5.99
(+22.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 18, 2026 4:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NIO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NIO price and gamma walls.
