Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOG - Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
$27.44
-0.10 (-0.36%)
▼
5d:
+4.33%
30d:
+20.3%
90d:
+25.87%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NOG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NOG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.98
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.62
25.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOG is currently trading at $27.44, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.34 to $26.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.5) compared to its historical average (6.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 119.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NOG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+13.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NOG scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+13.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$23.34 -
$26.49
Company Quality Score
24/100
(STRONG SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NOG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($31.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 24/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.34 -
$26.49
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.53
Resistance Level
$28.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.46
Wall Street Target
$31.00
(+13.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
119.0%
Profit Margin
-24.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.5 vs 6.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.49
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$23.68
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$22.00
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$27.42
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.3%)
$169.50
(+518%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.5, Growth: 19.3%)
$46.57
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.6, Growth: 19.3%)
$39.58
(+44%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.5 to 6.8
Stabilization Target:
$34.20
(+24.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 9:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NOG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NOG price and gamma walls.
