Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

NOG - Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS
$26.58
0.27 (1.03%) ▲
5d: +2.67%
30d: +10.34%
90d: +30.17%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $25.92 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 5.3/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
â„šī¸ NEUTRAL: NOG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.98
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.45
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: NOG is currently trading at $26.58, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.70 to $27.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.1) compared to its historical average (7.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 119.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, NOG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: NOG scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.78 (+12.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range $22.70 - $27.02
Company Quality Score 46/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 40.5%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($29.78)
  • WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $22.70 - $27.02
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $25.41
Resistance Level $27.10
Current Trend Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 6.07
Wall Street Target $29.78 (+12.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 119.0%
Profit Margin -24.1%
Valuation Discount vs History -4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical 6.1 vs 7.0 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -4.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $25.30 (-5%)
2-Year Target $24.09 (-9%)
3-Year Target $22.93 (-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 6→7) $26.44 (-1%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.0%) $111.23 (+319%)
Base: (SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 8.0%) $33.49 (+26%)
Bear: (PE: 5.2, Growth: 8.0%) $28.46 (+7%)
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 7.0
Stabilization Target: $30.64 (+15.3%)
PE Expansion Potential: +15.3%
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Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 AM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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Advanced NOG Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NOG price and gamma walls.

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