NOG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOG - Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
$20.36
1.84 (9.94%)
▲
5d:
+17.21%
30d:
-4.64%
90d:
-24.42%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
16d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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2 traders called NOG this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NOG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NOG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.19
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.71
14.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOG is currently trading at $20.36, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.30 to $20.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.1) compared to its historical average (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 9.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: NOG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.89 (+61.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 9.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: NOG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.89 (+61.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$18.30 -
$20.74
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+9.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 61.5% below Wall St target ($32.89)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.30 -
$20.74
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.58
Resistance Level
$22.79
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.07
Wall Street Target
$32.89
(+61.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.5%
Profit Margin
-32.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.1 vs 7.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.32
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$16.49
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$14.84
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$21.36
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.9%)
$106.70
(+424%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.1, Growth: 6.9%)
$24.85
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.3, Growth: 6.9%)
$21.13
(+4%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.1 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$29.30
(+43.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+43.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NOG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NOG price and gamma walls.
