Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOG - Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
$24.76
-0.38 (-1.51%)
âŧ
5d:
+3.9%
30d:
-5.89%
90d:
+21.61%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NOG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NOG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.64
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.83
19.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOG is currently trading at $24.76, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.46 to $26.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.4) compared to its historical average (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 119.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.43, while resistance sits at $25.56.
Market Sentiment: NOG scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.44 (+23.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.43, while resistance sits at $25.56.
Market Sentiment: NOG scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.44 (+23.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$23.46 -
$26.12
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NOG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.0% below Wall St target ($30.44)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.46 -
$26.12
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.44
Resistance Level
$25.56
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.44
Wall Street Target
$30.44
(+23.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
119.0%
Profit Margin
-24.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.4 vs 6.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.90
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$21.19
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$19.60
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5â7)
$24.87
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.3%)
$138.49
(+459%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.4, Growth: 15.3%)
$37.91
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.6, Growth: 15.3%)
$32.22
(+30%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.4 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$31.42
(+26.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 10, 2026 6:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NOG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NOG price and gamma walls.
