NVGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVGS - NAVIGATOR HOLDINGS LTD.
$20.48
-0.19 (-0.92%)
▼
5d:
+3.12%
30d:
-9.14%
90d:
+3.75%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.22
Based on -2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.70
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVGS is currently trading at $20.48, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.75 to $22.44. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVGS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.33 (+23.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVGS is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.33 (+23.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$19.75 -
$22.44
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.7% below Wall St target ($25.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.75 -
$22.44
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.44
Resistance Level
$23.26
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.82
Wall Street Target
$25.33
(+23.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.6%
Profit Margin
18.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.64
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$20.81
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$20.98
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.40
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -9.5%)
$27.96
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: -9.5%)
$15.18
(-26%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: -9.5%)
$12.90
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.62
Bull Case
$24.31
(+19%)
Analyst growth 6.9%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$22.10
(+8%)
Market implied 6.9%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$14.06
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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