NVS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVS - Novartis AG
$153.37
-0.68 (-0.44%)
▼
5d:
-1.36%
30d:
+3.54%
90d:
-0.44%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
7d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$225.63
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$140.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVS is currently trading at $153.37, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $149.38 to $156.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.7) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $151.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $151.94. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$149.38 -
$156.24
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($154.56)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.4% growth with -0.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$149.38 -
$156.24
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$151.94
Resistance Level
$160.57
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.67
Wall Street Target
$154.57
(+0.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.3%
Profit Margin
23.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$153.98
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$154.60
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$155.22
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$153.57
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.6%)
$304.73
(+99%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 12.6%)
$219.19
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 12.6%)
$186.31
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.98
Bull Case
$237.67
(+55%)
Analyst growth 40.3%, PE expands to 24.3
Base Case
$216.07
(+41%)
Market implied 40.3%, PE stable at 22.1
Bear Case
$104.75
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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