Novartis (NVS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVS - Novartis AG
$156.27
2.34 (1.52%)
▲
5d:
+3.92%
30d:
+9.5%
90d:
+0.81%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
3d
Get Alerted When NVS Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$216.44
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$134.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVS is currently trading at $156.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $139.72 to $149.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.9) is in line with its historical norms (15.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $157.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVS scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $157.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVS scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$139.72 -
$149.17
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($154.65)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.2% growth with 0.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$139.72 -
$149.17
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$142.31
Resistance Level
$157.10
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.94
Wall Street Target
$154.65
(-1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.0%
Profit Margin
22.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 15.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$158.15
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$160.04
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$161.96
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$156.46
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.0%)
$266.22
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 11.0%)
$213.70
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 11.0%)
$181.64
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.62
Bull Case
$250.73
(+60%)
Analyst growth 48.1%, PE expands to 25.6
Base Case
$227.93
(+46%)
Market implied 48.1%, PE stable at 23.3
Bear Case
$104.67
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is NVS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Drug Manufacturers - General Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Drug Manufacturers - General by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
ABBV
AbbVie Inc |
STRONG BUY
30 analysts |
$283 | 44 HOLD |
|
GILD
Gilead Sciences Inc |
STRONG BUY
28 analysts |
$160 | 43 HOLD |
|
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company |
STRONG BUY
31 analysts |
$1328 | 27 SELL |
|
BIIB
Biogen Inc |
BUY
36 analysts |
$244 | 39 SELL |
|
MRK
Merck & Company Inc |
STRONG BUY
27 analysts |
$158 | 43 HOLD |
