Novartis (NVS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVS - Novartis AG
$137.16
-0.32 (-0.23%)
▼
5d:
-15.9%
30d:
-9.95%
90d:
-10.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NVS is down 15.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: NVS is down 15.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$219.96
Based on 7.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$136.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVS is currently trading at $137.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $146.34 to $160.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $137.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVS scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $158.10 (+15.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $137.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVS scores 23/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $158.10 (+15.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$146.34 -
$160.75
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (23/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($158.10)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$146.34 -
$160.75
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$137.00
Resistance Level
$164.48
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.98
Wall Street Target
$158.10
(+15.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.0%
Profit Margin
22.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$132.50
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$127.99
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$123.64
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$137.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 11.4%)
$273.60
(+100%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 11.4%)
$189.70
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 11.4%)
$161.24
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.63
Bull Case
$223.71
(+63%)
Analyst growth 47.9%, PE expands to 22.8
Base Case
$203.38
(+48%)
Market implied 47.9%, PE stable at 20.7
Bear Case
$93.49
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$152.02
(+10.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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