Novartis (NVS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$160.32
-2.94 (-1.80%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.82%
30d:
+12.58%
90d:
+5.67%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (41%)
Quality Score
41/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$145.71 â $161.24
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
16.3x
FAIR
vs 15.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$157.10
-2.0% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$158.93 / $165.96
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NVS is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$199.26
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$123.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVS is currently trading at $160.32, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $145.71 to $161.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $158.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVS scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $158.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVS scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$145.71 -
$161.24
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$145.71 -
$161.24
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$158.93
Resistance Level
$165.96
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($157.10)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.8% growth with 4.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.30
Wall Street Target
$157.10
(-2.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.8%
Profit Margin
17.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 15.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$163.21
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$166.14
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$169.13
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16â15)
PE COMPRESSION
$159.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.3%)
$241.53
(+51%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 7.3%)
$198.29
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 7.3%)
$168.55
(+5%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.24
Bull Case
$336.99
(+110%)
Analyst growth 87.7%, PE expands to 34.3
Base Case
$306.36
(+91%)
Market implied 87.7%, PE stable at 31.2
Bear Case
$111.02
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NVS)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
2
Bearish
Last Tracked
Sep 8, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on NVS are bearish (sentiment score -0.08) across 2 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 1:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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