NVS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVS - Novartis AG
$156.15
-2.29 (-1.45%)
▼
5d:
+0.74%
30d:
+1.3%
90d:
+5.61%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NVS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NVS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$223.95
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$139.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVS is currently trading at $156.15, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $152.04 to $157.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.8) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $160.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $160.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$152.04 -
$157.53
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($155.37)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.7% growth with 0.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$152.04 -
$157.53
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$149.33
Resistance Level
$160.34
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.82
Wall Street Target
$155.37
(-0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.0%
Profit Margin
22.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$157.24
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$158.34
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$159.45
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$156.26
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 11.9%)
$286.66
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 11.9%)
$218.72
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 11.9%)
$185.91
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.61
Bull Case
$260.31
(+67%)
Analyst growth 49.4%, PE expands to 26.4
Base Case
$236.64
(+52%)
Market implied 49.4%, PE stable at 24.0
Bear Case
$107.74
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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