OTEX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OTEX - Open Text Corp
$24.67
0.06 (0.26%)
▲
5d:
+0.51%
30d:
+14.61%
90d:
+6.22%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OTEX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: OTEX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.68
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OTEX is currently trading at $24.66, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.95 to $25.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 5.5) is in line with its historical norms (5.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 476.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OTEX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OTEX scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.95 (+13.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OTEX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OTEX scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.95 (+13.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$22.95 -
$25.41
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($27.95)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 64/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.95 -
$25.41
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.12
Resistance Level
$25.28
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.52
Wall Street Target
$27.95
(+13.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
476.1%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.5 vs 5.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.27
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$23.88
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$23.50
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$24.69
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 5.5%)
$105.39
(+327%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.5, Growth: 5.5%)
$28.99
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.7, Growth: 5.5%)
$24.64
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.58
Bull Case
$46.86
(+90%)
Analyst growth 73.2%, PE expands to 10.5
Base Case
$42.60
(+73%)
Market implied 73.2%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$16.73
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.5 to 5.8
Stabilization Target:
$25.91
(+5.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 8:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:25 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is OTEX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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