Open Text (OTEX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OTEX - Open Text Corp
$23.06
0.45 (1.99%)
▲
5d:
-7.2%
30d:
-3.72%
90d:
+5.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OTEX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OTEX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.68
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OTEX is currently trading at $23.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.55 to $25.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.2) compared to its historical average (5.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 476.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OTEX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $22.32, while resistance sits at $25.57.
Market Sentiment: OTEX scores 27/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.95 (+21.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OTEX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $22.32, while resistance sits at $25.57.
Market Sentiment: OTEX scores 27/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.95 (+21.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$23.55 -
$25.35
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (27/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.2% below Wall St target ($27.95)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.55 -
$25.35
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.33
Resistance Level
$25.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.16
Wall Street Target
$27.95
(+21.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
476.1%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.2 vs 5.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.23
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$21.43
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$20.66
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$23.21
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 5.5%)
$105.91
(+359%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.2, Growth: 5.5%)
$27.10
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.4, Growth: 5.5%)
$23.04
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.58
Bull Case
$43.07
(+87%)
Analyst growth 73.2%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$39.15
(+70%)
Market implied 73.2%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$15.37
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.2 to 5.8
Stabilization Target:
$25.91
(+12.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:20 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is OTEX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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