PAYCOM SOFTWARE (PAYC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$246.96
+4.30 (+1.77%)
▲
5d:
-1.22%
30d:
+3.33%
90d:
+13.22%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
0d
Protect PAYC Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (75%)
Quality Score
61/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$234.14 – $265.11
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
16.0x
STRETCHED
vs 13.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$271.00
+11.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$230.92 / $273.07
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: PAYC trades at premium valuation expecting 5.6% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$327.92
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$203.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYC is currently trading at $246.96, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $234.14 to $265.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.0) compared to its historical average (13.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $230.92, while resistance sits at $273.07.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $271.00 (+11.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $230.92, while resistance sits at $273.07.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $271.00 (+11.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$234.14 -
$265.11
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$234.14 -
$265.11
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$12.38
(5.0%)
Support Level
$230.92
Resistance Level
$273.07
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAYC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($271.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.6% growth which is achievable
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (50/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.04
Wall Street Target
$271.00
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
52.6%
Profit Margin
23.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.6% premium
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 13.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$256.25
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$270.60
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$285.75
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$242.27
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.7%)
$465.55
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: 15.7%)
$376.02
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 15.7%)
$318.80
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.46
Bull Case
$378.56
(+56%)
Analyst growth 44.6%, PE expands to 25.0
Base Case
$344.15
(+42%)
Market implied 44.6%, PE stable at 22.8
Bear Case
$161.81
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (PAYC)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Paycom Software ($PAYC) is anticipated to report earnings growth in its upcoming Q3 report, with earnings expected to be $2.76 per share and revenues at $535.08 million.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings growth
positive sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL
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