PAYCOM SOFTWARE (PAYC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAYC - PAYCOM SOFTWARE, INC.
$272.61
11.60 (4.44%)
▲
5d:
+7.81%
30d:
+22.97%
90d:
+87.55%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: PAYC is 10.2% above its trading range ($247.33). Market expects 13.6% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: PAYC is 10.2% above its trading range ($247.33). Market expects 13.6% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$294.07
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$182.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYC is currently trading at $272.61, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $217.96 to $247.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.5) compared to its historical average (13.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 13.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $273.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: PAYC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (1th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $222.59. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $273.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: PAYC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (1th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $222.59. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$217.96 -
$247.33
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Options IV Signal
1th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
30.0%
Protect Your Profits
PAYC is technically overbought (RSI 81). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 1th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.4%)
- BEARISH: Trading 18.3% above Wall St target ($222.59)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 13.6% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$217.96 -
$247.33
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$17.28
(6.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$228.21
Resistance Level
$273.37
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.52
Wall Street Target
$222.59
(-18.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.1%
Profit Margin
22.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+13.6% premium
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 13.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+13.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$309.68
(+14%)
2-Year Target
$351.80
(+29%)
3-Year Target
$399.65
(+47%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$272.29
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.4%)
$426.75
(+57%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: 15.4%)
$419.47
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 15.4%)
$285.79
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.40
Bull Case
$426.54
(+57%)
Analyst growth 48.6%, PE expands to 30.5
Base Case
$387.76
(+42%)
Market implied 48.6%, PE stable at 27.8
Bear Case
$177.49
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 7:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAYC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced PAYC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYC price and gamma walls.
