PAYC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAYC - PAYCOM SOFTWARE, INC.
$229.07
2.35 (1.04%)
▲
5d:
+5.02%
30d:
+65.16%
90d:
+70.5%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PAYC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PAYC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$272.24
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$169.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYC is currently trading at $229.07, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $149.76 to $214.82. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.4) compared to its historical average (12.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $230.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAYC scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $203.81. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $230.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAYC scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $203.81. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$149.76 -
$214.82
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
30.0%
Protect Your Profits
PAYC is technically overbought (RSI 78). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.6% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 10.1% above Wall St target ($203.81)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 9.5% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$149.76 -
$214.82
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$13.38
(5.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$204.36
Resistance Level
$230.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.37
Wall Street Target
$203.81
(-10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.1%
Profit Margin
22.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.5% premium
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 12.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$248.26
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$271.84
(+20%)
3-Year Target
$297.67
(+31%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$227.26
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 15.1%)
$423.70
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 15.1%)
$345.65
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 15.1%)
$263.89
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.73
Bull Case
$347.79
(+52%)
Analyst growth 42.3%, PE expands to 25.1
Base Case
$316.17
(+38%)
Market implied 42.3%, PE stable at 22.8
Bear Case
$151.07
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 10:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAYC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-13
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Advanced PAYC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYC price and gamma walls.
