PAYC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAYC - PAYCOM SOFTWARE, INC.
$168.67
4.71 (2.87%)
▲
5d:
+11.48%
30d:
+21.16%
90d:
+27.82%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: PAYC is 7.6% above its trading range ($156.69). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: PAYC is 7.6% above its trading range ($156.69). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$225.81
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$140.21
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYC is currently trading at $168.67, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $132.74 to $156.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.7) compared to its historical average (12.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $172.54. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAYC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (16th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $151.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $172.54. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAYC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (16th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $151.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$132.74 -
$156.69
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
16th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAYC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.6% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 16th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 10.2% above Wall St target ($151.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$132.74 -
$156.69
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$13.27
(7.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$136.80
Resistance Level
$172.54
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.74
Wall Street Target
$151.50
(-10.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.6%
Profit Margin
22.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 12.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$174.74
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$181.03
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$187.55
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$169.25
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.5%)
$361.96
(+115%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 12.5%)
$239.93
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 12.5%)
$203.94
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.64
Bull Case
$256.24
(+52%)
Analyst growth 42.1%, PE expands to 20.9
Base Case
$232.94
(+38%)
Market implied 42.1%, PE stable at 19.0
Bear Case
$111.49
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAYC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-17
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Advanced PAYC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYC price and gamma walls.
