Is PAYX stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, PAYX is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PAYX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of PAYX stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PAYX to be between $113.01 and $121.96. The current price is $124.47.

What is the analyst price target for PAYX?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PAYX is $111.00. This implies a potential upside of -9.7% from current levels.

PAYX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PAYX - Paychex Inc

SERVICES-ENGINEERING, ACCOUNTING, RESEARCH, MANAGEMENT

$124.48

1.56 (1.27%) ▲

5d: +2.01%

30d: +12.48%

90d: +32.07%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your PAYX Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Sep 29, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $118.84 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 4.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PAYX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 7.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$135.76

Based on 5.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$84.30

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PAYX is currently trading at $124.47, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $113.01 to $121.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.9) compared to its historical average (17.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $125.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $113.01 - $121.96

Company Quality Score 39/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 42.9%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($111.00)
NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.0% growth which is achievable
WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $113.01 - $121.96

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $118.48

Resistance Level $125.90

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 20.85

Wall Street Target $111.00 (-9.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 12.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 43.4%

Profit Margin 26.6%

Valuation Premium vs History +6.0% premium

PE vs Historical 20.9 vs 17.5 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +6.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $130.28 (+6%)

2-Year Target $138.10 (+12%)

3-Year Target $146.39 (+19%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 21→18) PE COMPRESSION $122.88 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.8, Growth: 7.3%) $151.69 (+23%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.3%) $146.03 (+19%)

Bear: (PE: 17.1, Growth: 7.3%) $124.13 (+1%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 24.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.00

Bull Case $158.89 (+28%)

Analyst growth 17.9%, PE expands to 27.0

Base Case $144.44 (+16%)

Market implied 17.9%, PE stable at 24.5

Bear Case $83.30 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 23, 2026 11:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:02 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Rick Larsen SELL 2026-04-07

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-23

Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-10

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Advanced PAYX Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYX price and gamma walls.

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