Paychex (PAYX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAYX - Paychex Inc
$118.32
-0.50 (-0.42%)
▼
5d:
+5.99%
30d:
+16.46%
90d:
+2.45%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 23, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PAYX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PAYX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$138.09
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$85.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYX is currently trading at $118.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $101.15 to $115.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.1) compared to its historical average (17.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $119.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAYX scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $119.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PAYX scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$101.15 -
$115.19
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAYX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($113.93)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$101.15 -
$115.19
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$103.74
Resistance Level
$119.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.15
Wall Street Target
$113.93
(-4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.9%
Profit Margin
27.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.2% premium
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 17.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.80
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$129.00
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$134.42
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$118.73
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.3%)
$146.63
(+23%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.3%)
$144.50
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 7.3%)
$122.83
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.04
Bull Case
$144.76
(+22%)
Analyst growth 17.0%, PE expands to 24.6
Base Case
$131.60
(+11%)
Market implied 17.0%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$76.50
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 3:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAYX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYX price and gamma walls.
