Paychex (PAYX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAYX - Paychex Inc
$98.94
-1.90 (-1.88%)
▼
5d:
-2.4%
30d:
-20.21%
90d:
-6.12%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 23, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PAYX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PAYX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$138.09
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$85.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYX is currently trading at $98.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $105.17 to $124.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.8) is in line with its historical norms (17.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $98.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAYX scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.93 (+15.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $98.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PAYX scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.93 (+15.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$105.17 -
$124.90
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAYX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($113.93)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$105.17 -
$124.90
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$98.00
Resistance Level
$116.26
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.78
Wall Street Target
$113.93
(+15.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.9%
Profit Margin
27.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 17.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$97.06
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$95.22
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$93.41
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$99.07
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 7.3%)
$148.43
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 7.3%)
$122.11
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 7.3%)
$103.79
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.04
Bull Case
$129.75
(+31%)
Analyst growth 17.0%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$117.96
(+19%)
Market implied 17.0%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$68.57
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.8 to 17.8
Stabilization Target:
$104.94
(+6.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAYX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rick Larsen
SELL
2026-04-07
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYX price and gamma walls.
