Paychex (PAYX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$115.18
-0.19 (-0.16%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.62%
30d:
+6.28%
90d:
-5.61%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Dec 18, 2026
Protect PAYX Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (39%)
Quality Score
27/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$105.69 â $116.92
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
19.5x
FAIR
vs 17.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$114.57
-0.5% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$111.37 / $122.72
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PAYX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 2, 2026 at $115.76 · last confirmed Nov 6, 2026
Strength: 5.8/10
Get Alerted When PAYX Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$138.87
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$86.22
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAYX is currently trading at $115.18, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $105.69 to $116.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.5) is in line with its historical norms (17.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $111.37, while resistance sits at $122.72.
Market Sentiment: PAYX scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAYX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $111.37, while resistance sits at $122.72.
Market Sentiment: PAYX scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$105.69 -
$116.92
Company Quality Score
27/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
39.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$105.69 -
$116.92
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$111.37
Resistance Level
$122.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAYX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($114.57)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 27/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.54
Wall Street Target
$114.57
(-0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.9%
Profit Margin
27.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 17.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$118.52
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$121.96
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$125.49
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20â18)
PE COMPRESSION
$114.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.3%)
$144.50
(+26%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: 7.3%)
$142.15
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.6, Growth: 7.3%)
$120.83
(+5%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.00
Bull Case
$149.64
(+30%)
Analyst growth 17.9%, PE expands to 25.4
Base Case
$136.04
(+18%)
Market implied 17.9%, PE stable at 23.1
Bear Case
$78.45
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share PAYX Analysis
Share this live PAYX analysis (with rich preview card) to Reddit, StockTwits, X, or embed the chart on your blog.
bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (PAYX)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 7, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bearish sentiment dominates on StockTwits regarding $PAYX, as the stock hovers around a historically significant price level. The latest article from Yahoo Finance notes that Paychex's PEO business continues to outgrow the rest of the company, but investors are uncertain about the stock's ability to bounce back due to the historical performance at this price level.
Key Retail Themes:
Historical price performance
PEO business growth
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:48 PM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is PAYX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Software - Application Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Software - Application by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
DDOG
Datadog Inc |
STRONG BUY
47 analysts |
$272 | 59 HOLD |
|
SNOW
Snowflake Inc. |
STRONG BUY
52 analysts |
$427 | 55 HOLD |
|
UBER
Uber Technologies Inc |
STRONG BUY
50 analysts |
$99 | 47 HOLD |
|
ZM
Zoom Video CommunicationâĻ |
BUY
30 analysts |
$119 | 59 HOLD |
|
CDNS
Cadence Design Systems IâĻ |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$412 | 49 HOLD |
Advanced PAYX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAYX price and gamma walls.
Explore More Analysis & Live Quant Tools
Part A: Deep-Dive PAYX Research Pages
