PCAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCAR - Paccar Inc
$124.70
0.19 (0.15%)
▲
5d:
-0.51%
30d:
-5.57%
90d:
+6.87%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 31, 2026 at $124.41 · last confirmed Aug 31, 2026
Strength: 3.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PCAR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PCAR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$232.09
Based on 12.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$144.11
13.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCAR is currently trading at $124.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $126.10 to $133.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.4) is in line with its historical norms (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $121.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PCAR scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $141.03 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $121.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PCAR scores 74/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $141.03 (+13.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$126.10 -
$133.85
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (74/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($141.03)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 74/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$126.10 -
$133.85
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$121.18
Resistance Level
$132.43
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.39
Wall Street Target
$141.03
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 18.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$122.46
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$120.25
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$118.09
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$124.97
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 20.2%)
$252.29
(+102%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: 20.2%)
$216.83
(+74%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: 20.2%)
$184.31
(+48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.84
Bull Case
$202.96
(+63%)
Analyst growth 48.2%, PE expands to 28.3
Base Case
$184.51
(+48%)
Market implied 48.2%, PE stable at 25.7
Bear Case
$84.67
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.4 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$131.97
(+5.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 05, 2026 6:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced PCAR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PCAR price and gamma walls.
