PCAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCAR - Paccar Inc
$131.03
2.09 (1.62%)
▲
5d:
+0.18%
30d:
+0.21%
90d:
+19.84%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PCAR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PCAR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$234.15
Based on 12.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$145.39
9.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCAR is currently trading at $131.03, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $126.70 to $133.97. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.9) is in line with its historical norms (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $133.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PCAR scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $133.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PCAR scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$126.70 -
$133.97
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (62/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($141.03)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 62/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$126.70 -
$133.97
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$126.22
Resistance Level
$133.71
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.94
Wall Street Target
$141.03
(+9.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 18.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$127.78
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$126.63
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$125.49
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→18)
$128.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 20.5%)
$252.67
(+96%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 20.5%)
$225.79
(+75%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 20.5%)
$191.92
(+49%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.73
Bull Case
$213.12
(+63%)
Analyst growth 52.0%, PE expands to 29.6
Base Case
$193.74
(+48%)
Market implied 52.0%, PE stable at 27.0
Bear Case
$86.68
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.9 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$132.28
(+2.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 11:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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