Paccar (PCAR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$107.77
-0.36 (-0.33%)
▼
5d:
+3.13%
30d:
-0.73%
90d:
-17.6%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (81%)
Quality Score
67/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$103.70 – $109.61
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
15.6x
CHEAP
vs 17.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$126.88
+17.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$100.95 / $108.85
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PCAR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
PCAR is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today
SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; PCAR has been on it 2 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-11-11.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$206.61
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$128.29
16.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCAR is currently trading at $107.77, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $103.70 to $109.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.6) compared to its historical average (17.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 43.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $108.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PCAR scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.88 (+17.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $108.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PCAR scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.88 (+17.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$103.70 -
$109.61
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$103.70 -
$109.61
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$100.95
Resistance Level
$108.85
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($126.88)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 68/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.62
Wall Street Target
$126.88
(+17.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
43.6%
Profit Margin
9.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 17.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$103.48
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$99.03
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$94.77
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$108.01
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 18.0%)
$226.03
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 18.0%)
$177.77
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 18.0%)
$151.10
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.23
Bull Case
$153.72
(+42%)
Analyst growth 32.4%, PE expands to 22.2
Base Case
$139.74
(+29%)
Market implied 32.4%, PE stable at 20.2
Bear Case
$71.79
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 17.8
Stabilization Target:
$123.23
(+14.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.0%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (PCAR)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 27, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Investor $[username] reported that $PCAR's Q3 earnings came in line with expectations for EPS but beat revenue estimates. The stock is currently displaying a bearish sentiment on StockTwits.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings report
beats revenue estimates
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 9:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:48 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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