Paccar (PCAR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PCAR - Paccar Inc
$109.03
-1.19 (-1.08%)
▼
5d:
-1.61%
30d:
-2.73%
90d:
-17.56%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PCAR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PCAR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
PCAR is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today
SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; PCAR has been on it 3 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-10-21.
See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$223.84
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$138.99
21.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PCAR is currently trading at $109.03, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $107.74 to $115.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.4) compared to its historical average (18.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.44, while resistance sits at $112.71.
Market Sentiment: PCAR scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $133.38 (+21.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PCAR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $105.44, while resistance sits at $112.71.
Market Sentiment: PCAR scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $133.38 (+21.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$107.74 -
$115.89
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.0% below Wall St target ($133.38)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 64/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$107.74 -
$115.89
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$105.44
Resistance Level
$112.71
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.45
Wall Street Target
$133.38
(+21.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.5 vs 18.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$104.71
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$99.47
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$94.50
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→18)
$110.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.8%)
$243.74
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.5, Growth: 19.8%)
$189.66
(+72%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 19.8%)
$161.21
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.75
Bull Case
$181.80
(+65%)
Analyst growth 50.2%, PE expands to 25.5
Base Case
$165.27
(+50%)
Market implied 50.2%, PE stable at 23.2
Bear Case
$74.85
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.5 to 18.0
Stabilization Target:
$128.38
(+16.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 11:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PCAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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