Is PEGA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, PEGA is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PEGA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of PEGA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PEGA to be between $33.76 and $36.33. The current price is $36.65.

What is the analyst price target for PEGA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PEGA is $40.29. This implies a potential upside of 9.9% from current levels.

Pegasystems (PEGA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PEGA - Pegasystems Inc

SERVICES-COMPUTER PROCESSING & DATA PREPARATION

$36.65

1.47 (4.18%) ▲

5d: +1.95%

30d: +4.18%

90d: +36.65%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your PEGA Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 20, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 19, 2026 at $35.04 · last confirmed Oct 22, 2026

Strength: 4.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PEGA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 15.1%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$59.43

Based on 9.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$36.90

0.7% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PEGA is currently trading at $36.65, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.76 to $36.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.7) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PEGA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.

Market Sentiment: PEGA scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $33.76 - $36.33

Company Quality Score 48/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 28.6%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.2%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.29)
WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $33.76 - $36.33

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $32.93

Resistance Level $37.30

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 14.65

Wall Street Target $40.29 (+9.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 3.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -66.7%

Profit Margin 16.9%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.1% cheaper

PE vs Historical 14.7 vs 15.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $36.25 (-1%)

2-Year Target $35.85 (-2%)

3-Year Target $35.45 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→15) $36.55 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.1%) $75.75 (+107%)

Base: (SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 15.1%) $55.86 (+52%)

Bear: (PE: 12.4, Growth: 15.1%) $47.48 (+30%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 21.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.62

Bull Case $59.77 (+63%)

Analyst growth 54.5%, PE expands to 23.9

Base Case $54.34 (+48%)

Market implied 54.5%, PE stable at 21.7

Bear Case $23.92 (-35%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 15.1

Stabilization Target: $37.78 (+3.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +3.1%

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Last updated: October 23, 2026 7:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:10 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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