PEGA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PEGA - Pegasystems Inc
$33.56
-0.05 (-0.15%)
▼
5d:
+3.84%
30d:
+29.03%
90d:
-2.01%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PEGA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PEGA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.89
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PEGA is currently trading at $33.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.21 to $33.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.7) compared to its historical average (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PEGA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PEGA scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+28.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PEGA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PEGA scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.00 (+28.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$29.21 -
$33.32
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PEGA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.1% below Wall St target ($43.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.21 -
$33.32
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.11
Resistance Level
$34.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.73
Wall Street Target
$43.00
(+28.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.9%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 15.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.41
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$29.40
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$27.52
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$33.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 7.4%)
$65.45
(+95%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 7.4%)
$41.52
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 7.4%)
$35.29
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.76
Bull Case
$55.37
(+65%)
Analyst growth 49.8%, PE expands to 21.0
Base Case
$50.33
(+50%)
Market implied 49.8%, PE stable at 19.1
Bear Case
$22.85
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.7 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$40.85
(+21.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PEGA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Efstathios A Kouninis
SELL
1000 shares
2026-03-17
Rifat Kerim Akgonul
SELL
7594 shares
2026-03-16
Kenneth Stillwell
SELL
44000 shares
2026-03-10
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PEGA price and gamma walls.
