Pegasystems (PEGA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PEGA - Pegasystems Inc
$36.24
0.52 (1.46%)
▲
5d:
-3.92%
30d:
+15.6%
90d:
+10.45%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PEGA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PEGA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.33
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PEGA is currently trading at $36.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.18 to $36.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.7) compared to its historical average (15.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PEGA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $34.64, while resistance sits at $38.96.
Market Sentiment: PEGA scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.38 (+19.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PEGA is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $34.64, while resistance sits at $38.96.
Market Sentiment: PEGA scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.38 (+19.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$32.18 -
$36.15
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PEGA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.38)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.18 -
$36.15
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.64
Resistance Level
$38.96
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.71
Wall Street Target
$43.38
(+19.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.9%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 15.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.86
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$33.54
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$32.26
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→15)
$36.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.9%)
$66.90
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 7.9%)
$45.47
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 7.9%)
$38.65
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.76
Bull Case
$59.02
(+63%)
Analyst growth 50.2%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$53.66
(+48%)
Market implied 50.2%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$24.29
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 15.4
Stabilization Target:
$40.71
(+12.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:59 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PEGA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Efstathios A Kouninis
SELL
1000 shares
2026-03-17
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