PM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PM - Philip Morris International Inc.
$190.82
-1.18 (-0.61%)
▼
5d:
-1.13%
30d:
+7.39%
90d:
+15.6%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$245.80
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$152.62
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PM is currently trading at $190.82, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $178.90 to $193.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.8) is in line with its historical norms (19.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $187.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $187.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$178.90 -
$193.00
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($203.80)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.3% growth with 10.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$178.90 -
$193.00
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$187.31
Resistance Level
$207.76
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.81
Wall Street Target
$203.80
(+6.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.5%
Profit Margin
25.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
20.8 vs 19.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$195.21
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$199.70
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$204.29
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$190.43
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 9.4%)
$249.85
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 9.4%)
$248.86
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 9.4%)
$211.53
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.28
Bull Case
$266.00
(+39%)
Analyst growth 25.9%, PE expands to 29.0
Base Case
$241.81
(+27%)
Market implied 25.9%, PE stable at 26.4
Bear Case
$130.56
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-20
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
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