Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
PM is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today
SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.67% over the next 20 trading days; PM has been on it 2 days).
Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-09-11.
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$248.52
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$154.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.6x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: PM is currently trading at $191.06, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $185.72 to $191.15. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.8) is in line with its historical norms (19.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $194.82. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PM scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$185.72 -
$191.15
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
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Created from the international operations of Altria in 2008, Philip Morris International sells cigarettes and reduced-risk products, including heat sticks, vapes, and oral nicotine offerings, primarily outside of the US. With the 2023 acquisition of Swedish Match, a leading manufacturer of traditional oral tobacco products and nicotine pouches primarily in the US and Scandinavia, PMI has not only diversified away from smokable products but also gained a toehold in the US to sell its Iqos heated tobacco product.
