PM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PM - Philip Morris International Inc.
$178.69
5.52 (3.19%)
▲
5d:
-1.72%
30d:
-5.18%
90d:
+9.46%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
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Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$237.88
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$147.70
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PM is currently trading at $178.69, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $175.62 to $186.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.0) is in line with its historical norms (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $183.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $193.86 (+11.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $183.69. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $193.86 (+11.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$175.62 -
$186.83
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($193.86)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$175.62 -
$186.83
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$170.00
Resistance Level
$183.69
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.97
Wall Street Target
$193.86
(+11.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.3%
Profit Margin
26.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.0 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$172.30
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$171.44
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$170.59
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
$173.55
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.4%)
$253.51
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 8.4%)
$220.80
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.1, Growth: 8.4%)
$187.68
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.10
Bull Case
$252.31
(+46%)
Analyst growth 28.6%, PE expands to 27.6
Base Case
$229.38
(+33%)
Market implied 28.6%, PE stable at 25.1
Bear Case
$121.31
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.0 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$176.18
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-20
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
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