PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
CIGARETTES
Philip Morris International (PM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$196.35
+2.10 (+1.08%)
â˛
5d:
-7.07%
30d:
-1.48%
90d:
+3.94%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (78%)
Quality Score
46/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$195.27 â $206.24
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
21.7x
FAIR
vs 20.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$212.44
+8.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$192.26 / $214.35
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 5, 2026 at $201.50 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$243.62
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$151.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PM is currently trading at $196.35, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $195.27 to $206.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.7) is in line with its historical norms (20.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $192.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $192.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$195.27 -
$206.24
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$195.27 -
$206.24
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$192.26
Resistance Level
$214.35
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
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View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($212.44)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.9% growth with 5.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.71
Wall Street Target
$212.44
(+8.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.8%
Profit Margin
24.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
21.7 vs 20.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$202.04
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$207.90
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$213.93
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22â20)
PE COMPRESSION
$197.06
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.7, Growth: 8.3%)
$249.16
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$227.89
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$193.71
(-1%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.85
Bull Case
$282.08
(+44%)
Analyst growth 32.0%, PE expands to 31.2
Base Case
$256.44
(+31%)
Market implied 32.0%, PE stable at 28.4
Bear Case
$132.09
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (PM)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 6, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment on StockTwits regarding a product change in Zyn, while the news article discusses Philip Morris International's strong earnings performance and reasonable valuation, with the stock trading at a premium to its peers.
Key Retail Themes:
Product Change
Earnings Performance
Valuation
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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