Philip Morris International (PM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PM - Philip Morris International Inc.
$201.74
4.28 (2.17%)
▲
5d:
+0.92%
30d:
+5.71%
90d:
+4.53%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$251.73
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$156.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PM is currently trading at $201.74, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $189.38 to $200.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.0) compared to its historical average (19.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $184.00, while resistance sits at $210.45.
Market Sentiment: PM scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $184.00, while resistance sits at $210.45.
Market Sentiment: PM scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$189.38 -
$200.33
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($208.71)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.6% growth with 10.4% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$189.38 -
$200.33
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$184.00
Resistance Level
$210.45
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.98
Wall Street Target
$208.71
(+3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.5%
Profit Margin
25.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
22.0 vs 19.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$209.00
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$216.53
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$224.32
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$202.09
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 9.5%)
$264.62
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.5%)
$239.11
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 9.5%)
$203.25
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.85
Bull Case
$291.06
(+44%)
Analyst growth 34.0%, PE expands to 31.7
Base Case
$264.60
(+31%)
Market implied 34.0%, PE stable at 28.8
Bear Case
$134.27
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 3:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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