RLX
RLX Technology Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing the right to receive one (1) Class A ordinary share
Cigarettes
RLX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$1.54
+0.01 (+0.65%)
▲
5d:
-6.1%
30d:
-9.94%
90d:
-23.0%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 13, 2026
TODAY
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
52/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$1.61 – $1.72
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
1.4x
CHEAP
vs 1.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$2.79
+80.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$1.53 / $1.68
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RLX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Get Alerted When RLX Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.73
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.32
33.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RLX is currently trading at $1.54, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $1.61 to $1.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.4) compared to its historical average (1.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2.79 (+80.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RLX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $1.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $2.79 (+80.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$1.61 -
$1.72
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$1.61 -
$1.72
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$1.53
Resistance Level
$1.68
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 80.9% below Wall St target ($2.79)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.41
Wall Street Target
$2.79
(+80.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.6%
Profit Margin
21.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.4 vs 1.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1.40
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$1.26
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$1.15
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$1.54
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.3%)
$38.65
(+2410%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.4, Growth: 21.3%)
$2.75
(+78%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 21.3%)
$2.33
(+52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.11
Bull Case
$3.37
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$3.06
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$1.04
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.4 to 1.9
Stabilization Target:
$2.07
(+34.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.7%
Share RLX Analysis
Share this live RLX analysis (with rich preview card) to Reddit, StockTwits, X, or embed the chart on your blog.
bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (RLX)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Aug 16, 2024
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on RLX are bearish (sentiment score +0.00) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:39 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is RLX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Tobacco Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Tobacco by analyst ratings.
Explore More Analysis & Live Quant Tools
Part A: Deep-Dive RLX Research Pages
