BTI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BTI - British American Tobacco p.l.c. American Depositary Shares, American Depositary Shares, each representing one Ordinary Share
$60.47
1.57 (2.67%)
▲
5d:
+4.26%
30d:
+8.27%
90d:
-0.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BTI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: BTI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.38
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.15
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BTI is currently trading at $60.47, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.07 to $58.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.5) is in line with its historical norms (11.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $60.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BTI scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.43 (+16.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $60.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BTI scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.43 (+16.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$54.07 -
$58.03
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
29.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($70.43)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.7% growth with 1.4% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$54.07 -
$58.03
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.33
Resistance Level
$60.51
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.54
Wall Street Target
$70.43
(+16.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.6%
Profit Margin
25.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 11.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.89
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$61.32
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$61.75
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$60.45
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.7%)
$137.19
(+127%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 9.7%)
$79.74
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 9.7%)
$67.78
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.89
Bull Case
$87.26
(+44%)
Analyst growth 34.7%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$79.32
(+31%)
Market implied 34.7%, PE stable at 15.1
Bear Case
$40.05
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BTI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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