BTI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BTI - British American Tobacco p.l.c. American Depositary Shares, American Depositary Shares, each representing one Ordinary Share
$56.21
-0.49 (-0.86%)
▼
5d:
-1.49%
30d:
-6.07%
90d:
-14.48%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BTI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BTI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.32
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.87
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BTI is currently trading at $56.21, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.91 to $61.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $55.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BTI scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.20 (+24.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $55.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: BTI scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $70.20 (+24.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$56.91 -
$61.65
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.9% below Wall St target ($70.20)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 61/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$56.91 -
$61.65
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.59
Resistance Level
$58.16
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.77
Wall Street Target
$70.20
(+24.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-28.6%
Profit Margin
25.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.03
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$53.87
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$52.74
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$56.34
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.0%)
$131.99
(+135%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 8.0%)
$70.80
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 8.0%)
$60.18
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.99
Bull Case
$81.62
(+45%)
Analyst growth 30.9%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$74.20
(+32%)
Market implied 30.9%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$38.56
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.8 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$60.05
(+6.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BTI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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