Altria Group (MO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MO - Altria Group, Inc.
$69.38
0.83 (1.21%)
▲
5d:
+3.03%
30d:
+1.77%
90d:
-3.09%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
20d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 30, 2026 at $67.34 · last confirmed Oct 7, 2026
Strength: 6.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.67
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$50.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MO is currently trading at $69.38, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.99 to $69.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $70.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MO scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $70.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MO scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$67.99 -
$69.69
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($70.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.9% growth with 1.2% revenue growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 66/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$67.99 -
$69.69
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.78
Resistance Level
$70.29
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.83
Wall Street Target
$70.00
(+0.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.7%
Profit Margin
39.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.00
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$70.63
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$71.27
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$69.27
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: 3.3%)
$127.31
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 3.3%)
$76.46
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 3.3%)
$64.99
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.80
Bull Case
$92.12
(+33%)
Analyst growth 22.2%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$83.75
(+21%)
Market implied 22.2%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$46.61
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 08, 2026 1:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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