MO Altria Group, Inc. CIGARETTES

Altria Group (MO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$78.64
+0.72 (+0.92%) ▲
5d: +3.31% 30d: +6.5% 90d: +22.95%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (45%)
Quality Score
45/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$71.60 – $77.33
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
13.3x FAIR
vs 11.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$73.45
-6.6% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$74.80 / $79.87
Trend: Uptrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Nov 9, 2026 at $75.23 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026

Strength: 6.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$83.58
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.90
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MO is currently trading at $78.64, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.60 to $77.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.3) compared to its historical average (11.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $79.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $71.60 - $77.33
Company Quality Score 45/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 44.8%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $71.60 - $77.33
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $74.80
Resistance Level $79.87
Current Trend Uptrend
Technical data as of Nov 13, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($73.45)
  • NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
  • WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 13.28
Wall Street Target $73.45 (-6.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 6.7%
Profit Margin 39.3%
Valuation Premium vs History +4.5% premium
PE vs Historical 13.3 vs 11.6 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +4.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $82.18 (+5%)
2-Year Target $85.88 (+9%)
3-Year Target $89.74 (+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 13→12) PE COMPRESSION $78.39 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.0%) $132.37 (+68%)
Base: (SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 4.0%) $88.51 (+13%)
Bear: (PE: 11.3, Growth: 4.0%) $75.23 (-4%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.85
Bull Case $104.66 (+33%)
Analyst growth 22.1%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case $95.14 (+21%)
Market implied 22.1%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case $52.99 (-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MO)

Bullish 2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 13, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: The latest article discusses the dividend safety of Hormel Foods and Altria Group, with Altria's strong cash flow and dividend growth goal making its dividend more secure according to the analysis.
Key Retail Themes: Altria's strong dividend growth and cash flow Comparison of Hormel Foods and Altria's dividend safety
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 6:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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