MO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MO - Altria Group, Inc.
$68.47
2.38 (3.60%)
▲
5d:
+7.05%
30d:
-6.19%
90d:
-7.35%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 19, 2026 at $66.03 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.67
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$50.09
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MO is currently trading at $68.47, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.52 to $72.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $68.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MO scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MO is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $68.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MO scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$65.52 -
$72.62
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($70.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 72/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$65.52 -
$72.62
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.92
Resistance Level
$68.73
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.27
Wall Street Target
$70.00
(+5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.7%
Profit Margin
39.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$65.69
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$65.30
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$64.91
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$66.23
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 3.3%)
$129.70
(+96%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 3.3%)
$72.83
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 3.3%)
$61.91
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.81
Bull Case
$89.77
(+36%)
Analyst growth 21.9%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$81.61
(+24%)
Market implied 21.9%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$45.52
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.3 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$67.44
(+2.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 3:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Charles N Whitaker
SELL
27908 shares
2026-03-05
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