SAM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAM - Boston Beer Company
$185.95
-4.87 (-2.55%)
âŧ
5d:
+0.1%
30d:
+6.56%
90d:
-0.04%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SAM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SAM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$317.99
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$197.45
5.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAM is currently trading at $185.95, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $177.30 to $187.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.7) is in line with its historical norms (18.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $190.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $190.93. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$177.30 -
$187.09
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SAM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($199.85)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$177.30 -
$187.09
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$7.46
(4.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$174.78
Resistance Level
$190.93
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.68
Wall Street Target
$199.85
(+7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.0%
Profit Margin
-3.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.7 vs 18.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$182.79
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$179.68
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$176.63
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â19)
$185.77
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 16.6%)
$334.93
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.7, Growth: 16.6%)
$295.12
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.0, Growth: 16.6%)
$250.85
(+35%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.7 to 18.6
Stabilization Target:
$195.58
(+5.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 8:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SAM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SAM price and gamma walls.
