SAM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAM - Boston Beer Company
$180.48
2.86 (1.61%)
▲
5d:
-1.2%
30d:
-2.99%
90d:
-18.57%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SAM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.7% annual earnings decline despite 49% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SAM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.7% annual earnings decline despite 49% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$340.50
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$211.42
14.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAM is currently trading at $180.47, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $168.83 to $183.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.0) compared to its historical average (19.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 48.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $158.68, while resistance sits at $187.99.
Market Sentiment: SAM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.39 (+29.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $158.68, while resistance sits at $187.99.
Market Sentiment: SAM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $230.39 (+29.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$168.83 -
$183.61
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.7% below Wall St target ($230.39)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$168.83 -
$183.61
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$158.68
Resistance Level
$187.99
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.02
Wall Street Target
$230.39
(+29.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.6%
Profit Margin
-3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 19.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$167.49
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$157.94
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$148.94
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→19)
$177.56
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.1%)
$377.58
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: 16.1%)
$277.74
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: 16.1%)
$236.08
(+33%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.0 to 19.1
Stabilization Target:
$211.74
(+19.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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