SAP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAP - SAP SE
$159.97
2.11 (1.34%)
▲
5d:
-0.32%
30d:
-6.07%
90d:
-1.92%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
8d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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1 traders called SAP this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SAP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SAP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$312.27
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$193.90
17.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAP is currently trading at $159.97, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $152.13 to $172.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.4) compared to its historical average (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $171.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SAP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $248.93 (+55.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $171.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SAP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $248.93 (+55.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$152.13 -
$172.57
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.6% below Wall St target ($248.93)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$152.13 -
$172.57
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$171.69
Resistance Level
$196.39
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.43
Wall Street Target
$248.93
(+55.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 19.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$151.65
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$143.77
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$136.29
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→19)
$160.07
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.6%)
$345.20
(+116%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 17.6%)
$260.46
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 17.6%)
$221.39
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.10
Bull Case
$238.08
(+49%)
Analyst growth 37.1%, PE expands to 24.5
Base Case
$216.44
(+35%)
Market implied 37.1%, PE stable at 22.2
Bear Case
$107.34
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.4 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$187.88
(+17.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 8:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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