SEM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SEM - SELECT MEDICAL HOLDINGS CORP
$16.55
0.01 (0.06%)
▲
5d:
-0.66%
30d:
+0.18%
90d:
+1.85%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SEM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SEM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.64
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SEM is currently trading at $16.55, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.49 to $16.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SEM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SEM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $16.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$16.49 -
$16.60
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.62)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.8% growth with 5.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.49 -
$16.60
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.46
Resistance Level
$16.68
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.06
Wall Street Target
$16.63
(+0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.4%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.68
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$16.82
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$16.95
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.58
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.8%)
$41.71
(+152%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 11.8%)
$23.11
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 11.8%)
$19.64
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.07
Bull Case
$23.33
(+41%)
Analyst growth 28.2%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$21.21
(+28%)
Market implied 28.2%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$11.25
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SEM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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