SIMO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIMO - Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
$319.00
-17.90 (-5.31%)
▼
5d:
+15.41%
30d:
+21.06%
90d:
+157.82%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SIMO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SIMO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$314.76
Based on 7.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$195.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIMO is currently trading at $319.00, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $255.98 to $300.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 33.0) compared to its historical average (22.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 13.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $239.15, while resistance sits at $355.00. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: SIMO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $256.70. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $239.15, while resistance sits at $355.00. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: SIMO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $256.70. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$255.98 -
$300.05
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.3% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading 19.5% above Wall St target ($256.70)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 13.2% growth expectation is conservative given 239% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$255.98 -
$300.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$239.15
Resistance Level
$355.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.98
Wall Street Target
$256.70
(-19.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
105.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
238.7%
Profit Margin
16.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+13.2% premium
PE vs Historical
33.0 vs 22.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+13.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$361.11
(+13%)
2-Year Target
$408.77
(+28%)
3-Year Target
$462.73
(+45%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$318.45
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.0, Growth: 11.0%)
$436.05
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.0%)
$287.93
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 11.0%)
$244.74
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 39.68 | Forward EPS (Implied): $8.04
Bull Case
$385.19
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 41.7
Base Case
$319.00
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 39.7
Bear Case
$244.03
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 35.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 9:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIMO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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