SIMO
Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
Semiconductors & Related Devices
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Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$179.50
-4.15 (-2.26%)
▼
5d:
+14.87%
30d:
-19.72%
90d:
-33.25%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
54/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$177.56 – $249.98
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.3x
CHEAP
vs 20.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$363.09
+102.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$154.82 / $222.70
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SIMO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 26.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$872.90
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$542.00
66.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIMO is currently trading at $179.50, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $177.56 to $249.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.3) compared to its historical average (20.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 26.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 65.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $154.81, while resistance sits at $222.70.
Market Sentiment: SIMO scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $363.09 (+102.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $154.81, while resistance sits at $222.70.
Market Sentiment: SIMO scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $363.09 (+102.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$177.56 -
$249.98
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$177.56 -
$249.98
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$154.82
Resistance Level
$222.70
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 102.3% below Wall St target ($363.09)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 65/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.33
Wall Street Target
$363.09
(+102.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
131.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
65.5%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-26.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 20.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-26.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$161.55
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$145.40
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$130.86
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→21)
$326.77
(+82%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 58.1%)
$1444.48
(+705%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 58.1%)
$605.81
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 58.1%)
$514.94
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.30
Bull Case
$404.03
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.7
Base Case
$367.30
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.8
Bear Case
$124.88
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 20.8
Stabilization Target:
$448.25
(+149.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+149.7%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SIMO)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Oct 29, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on SIMO are bearish (sentiment score +0.00) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 5:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIMO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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