SIMO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIMO - Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
$251.52
-2.08 (-0.82%)
▼
5d:
+2.89%
30d:
-16.36%
90d:
+7.25%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SIMO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SIMO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$735.65
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$456.78
44.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIMO is currently trading at $251.52, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $253.15 to $320.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.8) compared to its historical average (23.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 722.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $204.37, while resistance sits at $294.34.
Market Sentiment: SIMO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $347.50 (+38.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $204.37, while resistance sits at $294.34.
Market Sentiment: SIMO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $347.50 (+38.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$253.15 -
$320.00
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.2% below Wall St target ($347.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$253.15 -
$320.00
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$204.37
Resistance Level
$294.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.85
Wall Street Target
$347.50
(+38.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
127.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
722.9%
Profit Margin
22.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 23.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$226.37
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$203.73
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$183.36
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→24)
$275.39
(+10%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 42.5%)
$952.98
(+279%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 42.5%)
$728.46
(+190%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 42.5%)
$619.19
(+146%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.55
Bull Case
$517.88
(+106%)
Analyst growth 85.6%, PE expands to 32.6
Base Case
$470.80
(+87%)
Market implied 85.6%, PE stable at 29.7
Bear Case
$172.45
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.8 to 23.8
Stabilization Target:
$377.77
(+50.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+50.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 2:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIMO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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