SIMO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIMO - Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
$258.36
8.71 (3.49%)
▲
5d:
-3.92%
30d:
-10.63%
90d:
-1.95%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SIMO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SIMO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$717.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$445.27
42.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIMO is currently trading at $258.36, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $236.61 to $282.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.3) compared to its historical average (23.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 733.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $222.37, while resistance sits at $275.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: SIMO scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.70 (+43.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $222.37, while resistance sits at $275.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: SIMO scores 61/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.70 (+43.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$236.61 -
$282.67
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
95.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (61/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 43.1% below Wall St target ($369.70)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 61/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$236.61 -
$282.67
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$222.37
Resistance Level
$275.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.28
Wall Street Target
$369.70
(+43.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
127.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
733.8%
Profit Margin
22.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 23.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$232.52
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$209.27
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$188.34
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→23)
$268.45
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 42.5%)
$922.64
(+257%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 42.5%)
$748.27
(+190%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 42.5%)
$636.03
(+146%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.81
Bull Case
$494.76
(+92%)
Analyst growth 80.2%, PE expands to 31.2
Base Case
$449.79
(+74%)
Market implied 80.2%, PE stable at 28.3
Bear Case
$169.76
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.3 to 23.2
Stabilization Target:
$368.25
(+42.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 5:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:28 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIMO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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