SIMO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIMO - Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
$321.66
2.66 (0.83%)
▲
5d:
+13.79%
30d:
+16.48%
90d:
+171.12%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: SIMO is 7.2% above its trading range ($300.05). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: SIMO is 7.2% above its trading range ($300.05). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$418.90
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$260.11
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIMO is currently trading at $321.66, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $255.98 to $300.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 30.5) compared to its historical average (22.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $247.02, while resistance sits at $355.00.
Market Sentiment: SIMO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $273.70. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $247.02, while resistance sits at $355.00.
Market Sentiment: SIMO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $273.70. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$255.98 -
$300.05
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 14.9% above Wall St target ($273.70)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 10.2% growth expectation is conservative given 239% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$255.98 -
$300.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$247.02
Resistance Level
$355.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.52
Wall Street Target
$273.70
(-14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
105.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
238.7%
Profit Margin
16.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.2% premium
PE vs Historical
30.5 vs 22.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$354.47
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$390.63
(+21%)
3-Year Target
$430.47
(+34%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$321.53
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.5, Growth: 19.8%)
$553.37
(+72%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 19.8%)
$394.84
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 19.8%)
$335.61
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 39.68 | Forward EPS (Implied): $8.04
Bull Case
$385.19
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 41.7
Base Case
$319.00
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 39.7
Bear Case
$244.03
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 35.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIMO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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