Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIMO - Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
$284.48
19.23 (7.25%)
▲
5d:
+20.7%
30d:
+17.89%
90d:
+3.7%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SIMO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SIMO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$698.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$433.75
34.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIMO is currently trading at $284.48, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $238.56 to $263.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.9) compared to its historical average (22.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 733.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $291.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.70 (+30.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $291.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.70 (+30.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$238.56 -
$263.00
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.2% above its trading range)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.0% below Wall St target ($369.70)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$238.56 -
$263.00
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$227.16
Resistance Level
$291.16
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.92
Wall Street Target
$369.70
(+30.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
127.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
733.8%
Profit Margin
22.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 22.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$263.14
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$243.41
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$225.15
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→23)
$283.91
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 42.5%)
$927.24
(+226%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 42.5%)
$823.92
(+190%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 42.5%)
$700.33
(+146%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.17
Bull Case
$566.86
(+99%)
Analyst growth 94.3%, PE expands to 35.7
Base Case
$515.33
(+81%)
Market implied 94.3%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$180.37
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.9 to 22.6
Stabilization Target:
$358.72
(+26.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 3:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIMO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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