Silicon Motion Technology (SIMO) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SIMO - Silicon Motion Technology Corporation
$187.39
-0.57 (-0.30%)
▼
5d:
-11.32%
30d:
-31.88%
90d:
-23.34%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SIMO is down 11.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SIMO is down 11.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$667.65
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$414.56
54.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SIMO is currently trading at $187.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $222.97 to $281.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (21.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 733.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $183.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SIMO scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.70 (+97.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SIMO is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $183.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SIMO scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $369.70 (+97.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$222.97 -
$281.68
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 97.3% below Wall St target ($369.70)
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$222.97 -
$281.68
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$183.33
Resistance Level
$259.98
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.81
Wall Street Target
$369.70
(+97.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
127.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
733.8%
Profit Margin
22.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 21.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$168.65
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$151.79
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$136.61
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→22)
$249.94
(+33%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 42.5%)
$912.99
(+387%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 42.5%)
$542.73
(+190%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 42.5%)
$461.32
(+146%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.23
Bull Case
$413.51
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 28.6
Base Case
$375.92
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.0
Bear Case
$127.81
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 21.6
Stabilization Target:
$342.85
(+83.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+83.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 12:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SIMO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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