SJM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SJM - The J.M. Smucker Company
$108.81
-1.72 (-1.56%)
▼
5d:
-3.91%
30d:
-6.86%
90d:
+21.53%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 26, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SJM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: SJM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.23
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SJM is currently trading at $108.81, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $108.56 to $116.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SJM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $99.42, while resistance sits at $115.23.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $122.31 (+12.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SJM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $99.42, while resistance sits at $115.23.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $122.31 (+12.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$108.56 -
$116.09
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($122.31)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.3% growth with 5.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$108.56 -
$116.09
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$99.42
Resistance Level
$115.23
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.43
Wall Street Target
$122.31
(+12.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Profit Margin
-1.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$109.14
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$109.46
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$109.79
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$108.65
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -3.0%)
$174.14
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: -3.0%)
$99.38
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: -3.0%)
$84.47
(-22%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 5:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SJM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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Advanced SJM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SJM price and gamma walls.
