Is SJM stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, SJM is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SJM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of SJM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for SJM to be between $119.71 and $131.03. The current price is $131.71.

What is the analyst price target for SJM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for SJM is $141.81. This implies a potential upside of 7.7% from current levels.

What is the Reddit and retail trader sentiment on SJM?

Retail and Reddit trader sentiment on SJM is currently Bullish. We tracked 2 recent retail mentions (1 Reddit/WSB comments and 1 StockTwits messages). Michael Burry raised concerns over the valuation of Anthropic being equivalent to 78 companies in the S&P 500, while a bullish trader on StockTwits expressed optimism about $SJM.

SJM The J.M. Smucker Company CANNED, FRUITS, VEG, PRESERVES, JAMS & JELLIES

The J.M. Smucker (SJM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$131.71

-1.36 (-1.02%) ▼

5d: -1.16% 30d: +8.1% 90d: +8.5%

Open in Live Scanner 70/30 Portfolio Builder Earnings: Nov 24, 2026 10d Protect SJM Gains Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET

QUANTITATIVE VERDICT

WAIT

LOW Confidence (27%)

Quality Score

30/100

Position

EXTENDED

30-Day Fair Range

$119.71 – $131.03

Position: EXTENDED

Forward P/E & Valuation

15.1x STRETCHED

vs 12.9x historical avg

Wall Street Target

$141.81

+7.7% upside

Options IV & Volume

HIGH Vol

HIGH volume confirmation

Support / Resistance

$126.61 / $136.22

Trend: Strong Uptrend

💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line

Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SJM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -3.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$115.61

Based on 0.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$71.78

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: SJM is currently trading at $131.71, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $119.71 to $131.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.3% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, SJM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $126.61, while resistance sits at $136.22.

Market Sentiment: SJM scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $119.71 - $131.03

Company Quality Score 30/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 27.1%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $119.71 - $131.03

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support Level $126.61

Resistance Level $136.22

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Nov 12, 2026

Protect Your Profits

Holding SJM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($141.81)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.3% growth with 5.0% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 15.05

Wall Street Target $141.81 (+7.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 5.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -2.6%

Profit Margin 2.5%

Valuation Premium vs History +5.3% premium

PE vs Historical 15.1 vs 12.9 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +5.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $138.69 (+5%)

2-Year Target $146.04 (+11%)

3-Year Target $153.78 (+17%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→13) PE COMPRESSION $131.85 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: -3.0%) $158.79 (+21%)

Base: (SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: -3.0%) $120.29 (-9%)

Bear: (PE: 12.8, Growth: -3.0%) $102.25 (-22%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 13.09 | Forward EPS (Implied): $10.06

Bull Case $159.04 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 13.7

Base Case $131.71 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 13.1

Bear Case $100.76 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 11.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SJM)

Bullish 2 Retail Mentions

Reddit / WSB Comments

Bullish

StockTwits Volume

1 msgs

24h retail stream

Last Tracked

Oct 8, 2026

Daily AI digest

AI Retail Discussion Summary: Michael Burry raised concerns over the valuation of Anthropic being equivalent to 78 companies in the S&P 500, while a bullish trader on StockTwits expressed optimism about $SJM.

Key Retail Themes: Valuation Concerns Market Sentiment

Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →

Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:44 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

NEUTRAL

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