The J.M. Smucker (SJM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SJM - The J.M. Smucker Company
$129.46
-3.93 (-2.95%)
▼
5d:
+1.59%
30d:
+6.41%
90d:
+6.95%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SJM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SJM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$114.71
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$71.23
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SJM is currently trading at $129.46, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $118.02 to $123.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.2) compared to its historical average (12.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SJM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $117.93, while resistance sits at $133.43.
Market Sentiment: SJM scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SJM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $117.93, while resistance sits at $133.43.
Market Sentiment: SJM scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$118.02 -
$123.89
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SJM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($141.81)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.1% growth with 5.0% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$118.02 -
$123.89
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.93
Resistance Level
$133.43
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.24
Wall Street Target
$141.81
(+6.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Profit Margin
2.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.1% premium
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 12.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$141.53
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$150.16
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$159.32
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$133.84
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -3.0%)
$158.79
(+19%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: -3.0%)
$121.82
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: -3.0%)
$102.34
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 11.99 | Forward EPS (Implied): $11.12
Bull Case
$161.07
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$133.39
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$102.04
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 1:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SJM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SJM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SJM price and gamma walls.
