SJM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SJM - The J.M. Smucker Company
$117.50
-1.76 (-1.48%)
▼
5d:
-2.93%
30d:
+1.05%
90d:
+21.17%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 26, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SJM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SJM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$111.13
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SJM is currently trading at $117.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $110.10 to $119.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SJM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $112.94, while resistance sits at $127.64.
Market Sentiment: SJM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SJM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $112.94, while resistance sits at $127.64.
Market Sentiment: SJM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$110.10 -
$119.09
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($124.12)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.7% growth with 5.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$110.10 -
$119.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$112.95
Resistance Level
$127.65
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.42
Wall Street Target
$124.13
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Profit Margin
-1.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 12.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$120.67
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$123.93
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$127.28
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$117.59
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -3.0%)
$165.74
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: -3.0%)
$107.31
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: -3.0%)
$91.22
(-22%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 10:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SJM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SJM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SJM price and gamma walls.
