SMSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMSI - Smith Micro Software Inc
$2.96
-0.02 (-0.84%)
▼
5d:
+1.37%
30d:
+17.46%
90d:
+273.83%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMSI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMSI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2.32
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMSI is currently trading at $2.96, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.56 to $2.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 6.5) compared to its historical average (3.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 22.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMSI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $2.79, while resistance sits at $3.19.
Market Sentiment: SMSI scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+268.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMSI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $2.79, while resistance sits at $3.19.
Market Sentiment: SMSI scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+268.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$2.56 -
$2.95
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
31.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 268.5% below Wall St target ($11.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 22.3% growth with -1.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.56 -
$2.95
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.79
Resistance Level
$3.19
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.49
Wall Street Target
$11.00
(+268.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-84.0%
Profit Margin
-92.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+22.3% premium
PE vs Historical
6.5 vs 3.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+22.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.65
(+22%)
2-Year Target
$4.46
(+50%)
3-Year Target
$5.46
(+83%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→4)
PE COMPRESSION
$3.03
(+2%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 25, 2026 1:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:51 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is SMSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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