Semtech (SMTC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMTC - Semtech Corp
$125.12
-16.51 (-11.66%)
▼
5d:
-13.24%
30d:
-26.11%
90d:
-0.64%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 23, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SMTC is down 13.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SMTC is down 13.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMTC is currently trading at $125.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $149.26 to $189.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 57.3) is in line with its historical norms (54.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $123.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 11.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $217.07 (+73.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $123.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 11.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $217.07 (+73.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$149.26 -
$189.17
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SMTC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-11.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 73.5% below Wall St target ($217.07)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$149.26 -
$189.17
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$123.36
Resistance Level
$195.47
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
57.27
Wall Street Target
$217.07
(+73.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
13.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
57.3 vs 54.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$127.25
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$129.41
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$131.61
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 57→55)
PE COMPRESSION
$125.24
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 57.3, Growth: 28.9%)
$267.97
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 28.9%)
$92.92
(-26%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 28.9%)
$78.98
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 53.19 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.35
Bull Case
$151.08
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 55.9
Base Case
$125.12
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 53.2
Bear Case
$95.72
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 47.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 8:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SMTC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMTC price and gamma walls.
