Semtech (SMTC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$121.09
-4.13 (-3.30%)
▼
5d:
+32.28%
30d:
-24.44%
90d:
-13.72%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (87%)
Quality Score
58/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$114.60 – $171.05
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
57.3x
FAIR
vs 54.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$217.07
+73.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$90.00 / $144.40
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SMTC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 11, 2026 at $125.46 · last confirmed Nov 11, 2026
Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMTC is currently trading at $121.09, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.60 to $171.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 57.3) is in line with its historical norms (54.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $90.00, while resistance sits at $144.40. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMTC scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $217.07 (+73.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $90.00, while resistance sits at $144.40. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMTC scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $217.07 (+73.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$114.60 -
$171.05
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$114.60 -
$171.05
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$90.00
Resistance Level
$144.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 73.3% below Wall St target ($217.07)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 65/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
57.32
Wall Street Target
$217.07
(+73.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
13.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
57.3 vs 54.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$127.22
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$129.26
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$131.33
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 57→55)
PE COMPRESSION
$125.10
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 57.3, Growth: 28.9%)
$268.18
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 28.9%)
$92.92
(-26%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 28.9%)
$78.98
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 19.42 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.45
Bull Case
$151.20
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 20.4
Base Case
$125.22
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 19.4
Bear Case
$95.79
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SMTC)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 3, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Semtech (SMTC) has a history of beating earnings estimates and analysts have recently become more bullish on its earnings prospects, leading to a positive Earnings ESP of +0.71%.
Key Retail Themes:
Strong earnings beat history
Positive analyst sentiment
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 10:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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