Semtech (SMTC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMTC - Semtech Corp
$194.88
8.29 (4.44%)
▲
5d:
+6.9%
30d:
+45.6%
90d:
+40.31%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMTC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SMTC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMTC is currently trading at $194.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $138.50 to $180.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 89.2) compared to its historical average (52.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 19.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $162.56, while resistance sits at $201.99. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMTC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $162.56, while resistance sits at $201.99. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMTC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$138.50 -
$180.08
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SMTC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.2% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.4%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($210.33)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 19.0% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$138.50 -
$180.08
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$162.56
Resistance Level
$201.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
89.21
Wall Street Target
$210.33
(+7.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
13.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+19.0% premium
PE vs Historical
89.2 vs 52.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+19.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$231.91
(+19%)
2-Year Target
$275.97
(+42%)
3-Year Target
$328.40
(+69%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 89→53)
PE COMPRESSION
$194.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 89.2, Growth: 28.9%)
$417.38
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 28.9%)
$95.45
(-51%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 28.9%)
$81.13
(-58%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 53.19 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.66
Bull Case
$235.32
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 55.9
Base Case
$194.88
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 53.2
Bear Case
$149.08
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 47.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 6:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Paul V Walsh Jr
SELL
500 shares
2026-04-22
Hong Q Hou
SELL
2000 shares
2026-04-10
Martin Burvill
SELL
2500 shares
2026-04-09
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Advanced SMTC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMTC price and gamma walls.
