SMTC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMTC - Semtech Corp
$163.50
-3.13 (-1.88%)
▼
5d:
+4.01%
30d:
+52.66%
90d:
+82.17%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 26, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SMTC trades at premium valuation expecting 19.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: SMTC trades at premium valuation expecting 19.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMTC is currently trading at $163.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $111.73 to $155.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 74.8) compared to its historical average (43.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 19.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $136.23, while resistance sits at $172.35.
Market Sentiment: SMTC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.83 (+25.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $136.23, while resistance sits at $172.35.
Market Sentiment: SMTC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.83 (+25.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$111.73 -
$155.62
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SMTC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.1% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.3% below Wall St target ($204.83)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 19.4% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$111.73 -
$155.62
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$136.23
Resistance Level
$172.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
74.84
Wall Street Target
$204.83
(+25.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
-3.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+19.4% premium
PE vs Historical
74.8 vs 43.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+19.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$195.22
(+19%)
2-Year Target
$233.09
(+43%)
3-Year Target
$278.31
(+70%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 75→44)
PE COMPRESSION
$163.25
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 74.8, Growth: 28.9%)
$350.17
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 28.9%)
$102.51
(-37%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 28.9%)
$87.14
(-47%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 8:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
18
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Paul V Walsh Jr
SELL
500 shares
2026-04-22
Hong Q Hou
SELL
2000 shares
2026-04-10
Martin Burvill
SELL
2500 shares
2026-04-09
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Advanced SMTC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMTC price and gamma walls.
