Semtech (SMTC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SMTC - Semtech Corp
$167.24
8.11 (5.10%)
▲
5d:
+23.52%
30d:
+19.46%
90d:
+2.24%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 25, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 9, 2026 at $165.46 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: SMTC is 11.3% above its trading range ($150.27). Market expects 14.7% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: SMTC is 11.3% above its trading range ($150.27). Market expects 14.7% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.04
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SMTC is currently trading at $167.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $124.35 to $150.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 76.5) compared to its historical average (50.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 14.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $170.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMTC scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.29 (+25.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SMTC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $170.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: SMTC scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.29 (+25.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$124.35 -
$150.27
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SMTC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+11.3% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.1% below Wall St target ($209.29)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 14.7% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$124.35 -
$150.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$124.83
Resistance Level
$170.43
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
76.55
Wall Street Target
$209.29
(+25.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
13.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+14.7% premium
PE vs Historical
76.6 vs 50.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+14.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$191.82
(+15%)
2-Year Target
$220.02
(+32%)
3-Year Target
$252.37
(+51%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 77→51)
PE COMPRESSION
$167.14
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 76.6, Growth: 28.9%)
$358.18
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 28.9%)
$94.37
(-44%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 28.9%)
$80.22
(-52%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 50.00 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.34
Bull Case
$201.94
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 52.5
Base Case
$167.24
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 50.0
Bear Case
$127.94
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 45.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 3:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SMTC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Paul V Walsh Jr
SELL
500 shares
2026-04-22
Hong Q Hou
SELL
2000 shares
2026-04-10
Martin Burvill
SELL
2500 shares
2026-04-09
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Advanced SMTC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SMTC price and gamma walls.
