1st Source (SRCE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SRCE - 1st Source Corp
$87.16
0.47 (0.54%)
▲
5d:
+0.59%
30d:
-1.53%
90d:
+11.99%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SRCE is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SRCE is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.19
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SRCE is currently trading at $87.16, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.76 to $88.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$85.76 -
$88.57
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($89.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (54/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.76 -
$88.57
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.04
Resistance Level
$87.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.78
Wall Street Target
$89.67
(+2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.3%
Profit Margin
38.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$90.12
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$93.19
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$96.36
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$87.50
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 2.2%)
$159.09
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 2.2%)
$92.94
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 2.2%)
$79.00
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.04
Bull Case
$100.19
(+15%)
Analyst growth 5.1%, PE expands to 13.6
Base Case
$91.08
(+5%)
Market implied 5.1%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$58.95
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SRCE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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