1st Source (SRCE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SRCE - 1st Source Corp
$87.18
1.37 (1.60%)
▲
5d:
+1.87%
30d:
+3.32%
90d:
+1.56%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SRCE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SRCE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$93.05
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SRCE is currently trading at $87.18, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.65 to $86.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $88.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SRCE scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $88.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SRCE scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$84.65 -
$86.49
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($89.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 63/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$84.65 -
$86.49
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$82.83
Resistance Level
$88.12
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.79
Wall Street Target
$89.67
(+2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.3%
Profit Margin
38.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 10.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$89.80
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$92.49
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$95.26
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$87.29
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.2%)
$156.64
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 2.2%)
$92.96
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 2.2%)
$79.02
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.96
Bull Case
$100.31
(+15%)
Analyst growth 6.3%, PE expands to 13.6
Base Case
$91.19
(+5%)
Market implied 6.3%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$58.35
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:15 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:15 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SRCE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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