1st Source (SRCE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SRCE - 1st Source Corp
$86.85
0.91 (1.06%)
▲
5d:
+0.88%
30d:
+0.91%
90d:
+5.46%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SRCE is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SRCE is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.19
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SRCE is currently trading at $86.85, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.27 to $86.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SRCE scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SRCE scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$85.27 -
$86.80
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($89.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 14% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.27 -
$86.80
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$82.98
Resistance Level
$87.47
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.74
Wall Street Target
$89.67
(+3.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.3%
Profit Margin
38.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$89.46
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$92.14
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$94.90
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$86.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 2.2%)
$160.90
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 2.2%)
$92.61
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 2.2%)
$78.72
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.09
Bull Case
$98.62
(+14%)
Analyst growth 4.3%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$89.66
(+3%)
Market implied 4.3%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$58.44
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SRCE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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