SRCE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SRCE - 1st Source Corp
$78.94
1.12 (1.44%)
▲
5d:
+1.99%
30d:
+6.83%
90d:
+15.92%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SRCE is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: SRCE is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$85.55
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SRCE is currently trading at $78.94, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.27 to $77.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.3) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SRCE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SRCE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$73.27 -
$77.38
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($79.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$73.27 -
$77.38
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.19
Resistance Level
$78.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.29
Wall Street Target
$79.67
(+0.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Profit Margin
37.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.47
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$84.07
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$86.76
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$79.17
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.0%)
$166.65
(+111%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 3.0%)
$86.37
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 3.0%)
$73.42
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.52
Bull Case
$91.82
(+16%)
Analyst growth 7.3%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$83.47
(+6%)
Market implied 7.3%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$52.92
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SRCE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Melody Birmingham
BUY
51 shares
2026-02-13
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