SRCE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SRCE - 1st Source Corp
$85.83
-0.32 (-0.37%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.13%
30d:
+3.19%
90d:
+16.16%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SRCE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SRCE is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$91.33
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SRCE is currently trading at $85.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.49 to $89.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.9) compared to its historical average (10.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $85.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SRCE scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SRCE is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $85.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SRCE scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$84.49 -
$89.76
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($89.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$84.49 -
$89.76
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$85.13
Resistance Level
$89.47
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.86
Wall Street Target
$89.67
(+2.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
29.3%
Profit Margin
38.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.06
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$94.52
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$98.12
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â11)
PE COMPRESSION
$87.69
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 2.2%)
$158.62
(+81%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 2.2%)
$93.55
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 2.2%)
$79.52
(-9%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.92
Bull Case
$103.35
(+20%)
Analyst growth 6.9%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$93.96
(+10%)
Market implied 6.9%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$59.77
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SRCE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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