Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SSD - Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.
$173.56
0.97 (0.56%)
â˛
5d:
-1.69%
30d:
-2.25%
90d:
-12.17%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
22d
Get Alerted When SSD Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SSD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SSD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$240.74
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$149.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SSD is currently trading at $173.56, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $171.99 to $180.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.9) is in line with its historical norms (19.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SSD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $168.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SSD scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.00 (+26.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SSD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $168.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SSD scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.00 (+26.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$171.99 -
$180.54
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.2% below Wall St target ($219.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$171.99 -
$180.54
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$168.68
Resistance Level
$177.46
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.87
Wall Street Target
$219.00
(+26.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.1%
Profit Margin
15.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 19.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$169.57
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$165.67
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$161.86
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â19)
$173.86
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 6.5%)
$239.07
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 6.5%)
$209.47
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 6.5%)
$178.05
(+3%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.12
Bull Case
$202.13
(+17%)
Analyst growth 6.5%, PE expands to 20.8
Base Case
$183.75
(+6%)
Market implied 6.5%, PE stable at 18.9
Bear Case
$117.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.9 to 19.2
Stabilization Target:
$186.43
(+7.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 3:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 AM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is SSD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Lumber & Wood Production Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Lumber & Wood Production by analyst ratings.
