Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SSD - Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.
$173.49
1.06 (0.61%)
▲
5d:
-2.58%
30d:
-10.95%
90d:
-10.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SSD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SSD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$246.02
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$152.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SSD is currently trading at $173.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $178.77 to $194.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.9) is in line with its historical norms (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SSD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $171.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SSD scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.00 (+26.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SSD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $171.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: SSD scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.00 (+26.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$178.77 -
$194.92
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (26/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.2% below Wall St target ($219.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$178.77 -
$194.92
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$171.36
Resistance Level
$184.05
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.87
Wall Street Target
$219.00
(+26.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.1%
Profit Margin
15.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$169.15
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$164.92
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$160.80
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$173.70
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.2%)
$241.30
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 7.2%)
$213.75
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 7.2%)
$181.69
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.13
Bull Case
$201.72
(+16%)
Analyst growth 6.4%, PE expands to 20.8
Base Case
$183.38
(+6%)
Market implied 6.4%, PE stable at 18.9
Bear Case
$117.25
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.9 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$187.40
(+8.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 2:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SSD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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