SSD
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.
CUTLERY, HANDTOOLS & GENERAL HARDWARE
Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$198.41
-3.24 (-1.61%)
▼
5d:
-0.22%
30d:
+15.97%
90d:
+2.39%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (25%)
Quality Score
31/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$174.04 – $197.88
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
20.8x
FAIR
vs 19.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$213.60
+5.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$191.45 / $208.49
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SSD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$231.10
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$143.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SSD is currently trading at $198.41, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $174.04 to $197.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.8) is in line with its historical norms (19.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SSD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $191.45, while resistance sits at $208.49.
Market Sentiment: SSD scores 19/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SSD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $191.45, while resistance sits at $208.49.
Market Sentiment: SSD scores 19/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$174.04 -
$197.88
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$174.04 -
$197.88
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$191.45
Resistance Level
$208.49
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (19/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($213.60)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 30/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.78
Wall Street Target
$213.60
(+5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.9%
Profit Margin
15.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
20.8 vs 19.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$207.30
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$213.10
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$219.07
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$202.43
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 4.8%)
$231.89
(+15%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.8%)
$221.65
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 4.8%)
$188.40
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.25
Bull Case
$232.47
(+15%)
Analyst growth 4.9%, PE expands to 24.0
Base Case
$211.34
(+5%)
Market implied 4.9%, PE stable at 21.8
Bear Case
$136.97
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (SSD)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 12, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Building products manufacturer Simpson (SSD) reported Q3 2026 earnings beating estimates, with revenue up 2.3% YoY to $638.1 million and EPS of $2.68, a 9.5% beat. Simpson surprised with a new $1.0 billion share repurchase authorization.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings surprise
share repurchase authorization
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:07 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is SSD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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