Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SSD - Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.
$185.58
-1.34 (-0.72%)
▼
5d:
+5.2%
30d:
+6.89%
90d:
-3.96%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SSD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: SSD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$235.70
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$146.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SSD is currently trading at $185.58, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $170.62 to $178.64. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.3) is in line with its historical norms (19.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SSD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $187.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SSD scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.00 (+17.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SSD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $187.01. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SSD scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.00 (+17.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$170.62 -
$178.64
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($219.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$170.62 -
$178.64
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$168.92
Resistance Level
$187.01
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.33
Wall Street Target
$219.00
(+17.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.1%
Profit Margin
15.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
19.3 vs 19.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$187.67
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$188.42
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$189.17
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$186.92
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.0%)
$228.93
(+23%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.3, Growth: 6.0%)
$222.82
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.4, Growth: 6.0%)
$189.40
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.15
Bull Case
$209.38
(+12%)
Analyst growth 5.7%, PE expands to 21.7
Base Case
$190.35
(+2%)
Market implied 5.7%, PE stable at 19.7
Bear Case
$122.48
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 2:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SSD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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