SUPN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SUPN - Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$45.85
-1.60 (-3.37%)
âŧ
5d:
-5.01%
30d:
-2.84%
90d:
-7.15%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SUPN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SUPN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.95
32.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SUPN is currently trading at $45.85, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.83 to $48.27. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.8) compared to its historical average (12.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (16th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.75 (+27.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (16th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.75 (+27.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$45.83 -
$48.27
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
16th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SUPN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 16th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 27.9% below Wall St target ($61.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.83 -
$48.27
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$2.98
(6.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.79
Resistance Level
$49.82
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.82
Wall Street Target
$61.75
(+27.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
-13.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 12.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.90
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$43.66
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$41.52
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â13)
$48.33
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 73.9%)
$302.71
(+527%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 73.9%)
$162.91
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 73.9%)
$138.47
(+187%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.8 to 12.6
Stabilization Target:
$56.20
(+16.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 3:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SUPN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Padmanabh P Bhatt
SELL
7250 shares
2026-03-18
Padmanabh P Bhatt
SELL
50000 shares
2026-03-16
Jack A Khattar
SELL
35000 shares
2026-03-13
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Advanced SUPN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SUPN price and gamma walls.
