Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SUPN - Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$40.41
-1.66 (-3.95%)
âŧ
5d:
+6.68%
30d:
-6.65%
90d:
-13.98%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SUPN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: SUPN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.4% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$100.02
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$62.10
34.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SUPN is currently trading at $40.41, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.71 to $43.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $37.54, while resistance sits at $43.29. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: SUPN scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.50 (+43.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SUPN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $37.54, while resistance sits at $43.29. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: SUPN scores 31/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.50 (+43.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$40.71 -
$43.55
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SUPN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (31/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 43.8% below Wall St target ($60.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.71 -
$43.55
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.54
Resistance Level
$43.29
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.83
Wall Street Target
$60.50
(+43.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Profit Margin
-13.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 12.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.38
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$36.86
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$34.50
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â12)
$42.12
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 79.5%)
$286.88
(+582%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 79.5%)
$141.99
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 79.5%)
$120.69
(+187%)
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$51.36
(+22.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 1:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SUPN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SUPN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SUPN price and gamma walls.
