TAK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TAK - Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited American Depositary Shares (each representing 1/2 of a share of Common Stock)
$17.86
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-5.3%
30d:
-3.09%
90d:
+5.74%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TAK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TAK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.99
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.97
22.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TAK is currently trading at $17.86, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.10 to $18.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 0.2) is in line with its historical norms (0.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TAK scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.99 (+23.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TAK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.78. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TAK scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.99 (+23.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.10 -
$18.79
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.1% below Wall St target ($21.99)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.2% growth with 10.2% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.10 -
$18.79
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.78
Resistance Level
$19.05
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.19
Wall Street Target
$21.99
(+23.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.8%
Profit Margin
-3.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
0.2 vs 0.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.25
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$18.65
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$19.06
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→0)
$20.28
(+14%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 93.0%)
$6539.51
(+36515%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.2, Growth: 93.0%)
$60.28
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.2, Growth: 93.0%)
$51.24
(+187%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 4:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TAK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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