Tactile Systems Technology (TCMD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCMD - Tactile Systems Technology, Inc.
$23.54
0.26 (1.12%)
▲
5d:
+1.07%
30d:
+4.95%
90d:
-14.34%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TCMD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TCMD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.40
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.64
33.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCMD is currently trading at $23.54, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.14 to $23.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.2) compared to its historical average (20.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 144.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCMD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.67 (+60.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCMD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.67 (+60.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.14 -
$23.00
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
32th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TCMD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 32th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 60.0% below Wall St target ($37.67)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.14 -
$23.00
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.44
(10.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.00
Resistance Level
$23.87
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.18
Wall Street Target
$37.67
(+60.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
144.1%
Profit Margin
7.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 20.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.82
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$20.23
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$18.75
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→20)
$23.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 24.9%)
$56.29
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 24.9%)
$45.86
(+95%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 24.9%)
$38.98
(+66%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.08
Bull Case
$34.50
(+47%)
Analyst growth 34.7%, PE expands to 23.7
Base Case
$31.36
(+33%)
Market implied 34.7%, PE stable at 21.6
Bear Case
$15.83
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.2 to 20.3
Stabilization Target:
$29.54
(+25.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 12:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCMD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TCMD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TCMD price and gamma walls.
