Tactile Systems Technology (TCMD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCMD - Tactile Systems Technology, Inc.
$22.10
0.39 (1.80%)
â˛
5d:
-2.77%
30d:
-1.38%
90d:
-30.66%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TCMD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -9.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TCMD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -9.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.25
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.17
38.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCMD is currently trading at $22.10, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.05 to $23.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.2) compared to its historical average (20.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 144.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCMD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+76.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCMD is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+76.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$22.05 -
$23.03
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
39th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TCMD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 39th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 76.5% below Wall St target ($39.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.05 -
$23.03
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$2.49
(11.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.61
Resistance Level
$23.30
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.19
Wall Street Target
$39.00
(+76.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
144.1%
Profit Margin
7.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 20.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.96
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$18.02
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$16.27
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â21)
$22.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 24.9%)
$57.82
(+162%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: 24.9%)
$43.05
(+95%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 24.9%)
$36.60
(+66%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.04
Bull Case
$33.41
(+51%)
Analyst growth 39.9%, PE expands to 23.0
Base Case
$30.37
(+37%)
Market implied 39.9%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case
$14.76
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.2 to 20.6
Stabilization Target:
$29.97
(+35.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 9:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCMD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TCMD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TCMD price and gamma walls.
