Tactile Systems Technology (TCMD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TCMD - Tactile Systems Technology, Inc.
$22.40
0.08 (0.36%)
▲
5d:
+1.77%
30d:
-8.61%
90d:
-14.99%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCMD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TCMD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.66
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.04
39.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TCMD is currently trading at $22.40, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.73 to $26.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.4) compared to its historical average (21.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 144.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCMD is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $21.29, while resistance sits at $23.40.
Market Sentiment: TCMD scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+74.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TCMD is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $21.29, while resistance sits at $23.40.
Market Sentiment: TCMD scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.00 (+74.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$21.73 -
$26.86
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 74.1% below Wall St target ($39.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 63/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.73 -
$26.86
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.37
(6.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.29
Resistance Level
$23.40
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.40
Wall Street Target
$39.00
(+74.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
144.1%
Profit Margin
7.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 21.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.18
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$18.18
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$16.38
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→21)
$22.46
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 24.9%)
$57.17
(+155%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 24.9%)
$43.64
(+95%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.1, Growth: 24.9%)
$37.09
(+66%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.86 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.07
Bull Case
$33.39
(+49%)
Analyst growth 36.0%, PE expands to 23.0
Base Case
$30.35
(+36%)
Market implied 36.0%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case
$15.18
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.4 to 21.1
Stabilization Target:
$30.70
(+37.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TCMD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TCMD price and gamma walls.
