Is TD stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, TD is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of TD stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TD to be between $116.68 and $122.04. The current price is $125.12.

What is the analyst price target for TD?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TD is $121.26. This implies a potential upside of -3.1% from current levels.

Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TD - Toronto Dominion Bank

Commercial Banks, NEC

$125.12

0.42 (0.34%) ▲

5d: +4.47%

30d: +4.78%

90d: +4.46%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Dec 03, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 15, 2026 at $119.77 · last confirmed Oct 16, 2026

Strength: 4.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$162.23

Based on 7.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$100.74

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TD is currently trading at $125.12, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $116.68 to $122.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $125.64. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: TD scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $116.68 - $122.04

Company Quality Score 45/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 24.8%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($121.26)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $116.68 - $122.04

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $113.21

Resistance Level $125.64

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.18

Wall Street Target $121.26 (-3.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 11.5%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 45.0%

Profit Margin 26.6%

Valuation Premium vs History +3.0% premium

PE vs Historical 11.2 vs 10.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +3.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $128.87 (+3%)

2-Year Target $132.74 (+6%)

3-Year Target $136.72 (+9%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 11→10) PE COMPRESSION $124.79 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.6%) $301.19 (+141%)

Base: (SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 10.6%) $169.48 (+36%)

Bear: (PE: 9.5, Growth: 10.6%) $144.06 (+15%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 18.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.74

Bull Case $223.16 (+79%)

Analyst growth 66.1%, PE expands to 19.9

Base Case $202.87 (+63%)

Market implied 66.1%, PE stable at 18.1

Bear Case $83.05 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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