TD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TD - Toronto Dominion Bank
$119.92
0.16 (0.13%)
▲
5d:
+0.12%
30d:
-1.91%
90d:
+11.35%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
24d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$153.73
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$95.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TD is currently trading at $119.92, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $118.91 to $122.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.1) compared to its historical average (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $116.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $116.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$118.91 -
$122.20
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($113.03)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.5% growth with -31.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$118.91 -
$122.20
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$116.84
Resistance Level
$123.86
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.14
Wall Street Target
$113.03
(-5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-31.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-61.2%
Profit Margin
25.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.95
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$128.29
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$132.78
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$119.15
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 10.9%)
$305.29
(+155%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: 10.9%)
$163.48
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.5, Growth: 10.9%)
$138.96
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.87
Bull Case
$235.61
(+97%)
Analyst growth 83.1%, PE expands to 21.9
Base Case
$214.19
(+79%)
Market implied 83.1%, PE stable at 19.9
Bear Case
$79.55
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 5:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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