Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$124.28
+0.41 (+0.33%)
▲
5d:
-3.06%
30d:
+5.37%
90d:
+0.95%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
55/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$116.98 – $125.11
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.1x
FAIR
vs 10.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$119.96
-3.5% vs target
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$121.84 / $128.79
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$163.71
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$101.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TD is currently trading at $124.28, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $116.98 to $125.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $121.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TD scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $121.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TD scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$116.98 -
$125.11
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$116.98 -
$125.11
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$121.84
Resistance Level
$128.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (62/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($119.96)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 62/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.11
Wall Street Target
$119.96
(-3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.0%
Profit Margin
26.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$127.51
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$130.83
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$134.23
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$124.46
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.6%)
$300.28
(+142%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.1, Growth: 10.6%)
$167.96
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: 10.6%)
$142.76
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.72
Bull Case
$226.85
(+83%)
Analyst growth 66.5%, PE expands to 20.3
Base Case
$206.23
(+66%)
Market implied 66.5%, PE stable at 18.4
Bear Case
$84.23
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (TD)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
TD Asset Management announced risk rating changes for certain TD ETFs, classifying some as Medium to High risk. No changes were made to investment objectives or strategies.
Key Retail Themes:
TD Asset Management's risk rating changes
Impact of risk rating changes on specific TD ETFs
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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