TFI International (TFII) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFII - TFI International Inc.
$131.24
0.11 (0.08%)
▲
5d:
-1.18%
30d:
-10.07%
90d:
-17.37%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TFII shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TFII shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$302.89
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$188.07
30.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFII is currently trading at $131.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $132.11 to $142.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.6) compared to its historical average (19.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 41.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFII is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $126.50, while resistance sits at $137.69.
Market Sentiment: TFII scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $174.08 (+32.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFII is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $126.50, while resistance sits at $137.69.
Market Sentiment: TFII scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $174.08 (+32.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$132.11 -
$142.55
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.6% below Wall St target ($174.08)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 60/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$132.11 -
$142.55
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$126.50
Resistance Level
$137.70
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.62
Wall Street Target
$174.08
(+32.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.0%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 19.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$124.15
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$117.45
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$111.11
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→20)
$131.68
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 31.9%)
$365.35
(+178%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 31.9%)
$301.09
(+129%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 31.9%)
$255.93
(+95%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.04
Bull Case
$281.89
(+115%)
Analyst growth 95.4%, PE expands to 35.7
Base Case
$256.26
(+95%)
Market implied 95.4%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$89.17
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.6 to 19.7
Stabilization Target:
$155.54
(+18.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 1:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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