TFI International (TFII) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFII - TFI International Inc.
$118.90
-1.65 (-1.37%)
▼
5d:
-1.82%
30d:
-7.81%
90d:
-15.6%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TFII shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TFII shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$298.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$185.21
35.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFII is currently trading at $118.90, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $122.81 to $133.80. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (19.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 41.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFII is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $118.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TFII scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $172.00 (+44.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFII is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $118.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TFII scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $172.00 (+44.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$122.81 -
$133.80
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.7% below Wall St target ($172.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$122.81 -
$133.80
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$118.37
Resistance Level
$128.05
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.06
Wall Street Target
$172.00
(+44.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.0%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 19.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$109.27
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$100.42
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$92.28
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→19)
$118.88
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 32.0%)
$370.07
(+211%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 32.0%)
$273.19
(+130%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 32.0%)
$232.21
(+95%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.07
Bull Case
$257.24
(+116%)
Analyst growth 94.0%, PE expands to 32.6
Base Case
$233.85
(+97%)
Market implied 94.0%, PE stable at 29.6
Bear Case
$81.97
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.1 to 19.4
Stabilization Target:
$153.17
(+28.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 4:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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