TM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TM - Toyota Motor Corporation American Depositary Shares (Each representing ten Ordinary Shares)
$196.79
-1.43 (-0.72%)
▼
5d:
+1.12%
30d:
+5.39%
90d:
+8.04%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: TM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$343.71
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$213.42
7.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TM is currently trading at $196.79, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $184.66 to $194.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 86.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $198.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TM scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.08 (+18.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $198.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TM scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.08 (+18.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$184.66 -
$194.10
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($234.08)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$184.66 -
$194.10
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$184.59
Resistance Level
$198.58
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.89
Wall Street Target
$234.08
(+18.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.9%
Profit Margin
8.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$195.22
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$193.65
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$192.10
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$196.66
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 18.8%)
$736.28
(+274%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 18.8%)
$329.56
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 18.8%)
$280.13
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.76
Bull Case
$212.08
(+8%)
Analyst growth -2.7%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$192.80
(-2%)
Market implied -2.7%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$134.79
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$201.45
(+2.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 26, 2026 1:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:46 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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