TM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TM - Toyota Motor Corporation American Depositary Shares (Each representing ten Ordinary Shares)
$195.49
-2.07 (-1.05%)
âŧ
5d:
+2.11%
30d:
+2.29%
90d:
+8.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: TM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$347.49
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$215.76
9.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TM is currently trading at $195.49, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $189.49 to $196.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 86.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $190.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $231.58 (+17.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $190.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $231.58 (+17.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$189.49 -
$196.71
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($231.58)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$189.49 -
$196.71
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$190.92
Resistance Level
$200.86
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.92
Wall Street Target
$231.58
(+17.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.9%
Profit Margin
8.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$195.39
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$193.24
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$191.11
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â9)
$197.02
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 18.8%)
$748.52
(+279%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 18.8%)
$330.85
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 18.8%)
$281.22
(+42%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.87
Bull Case
$211.04
(+7%)
Analyst growth -3.2%, PE expands to 9.5
Base Case
$191.85
(-3%)
Market implied -3.2%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$134.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$203.67
(+3.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 15, 2026 1:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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