TM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TM - Toyota Motor Corporation American Depositary Shares (Each representing ten Ordinary Shares)
$184.12
2.63 (1.45%)
▲
5d:
-2.22%
30d:
-7.88%
90d:
+2.61%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$347.49
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$215.76
14.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TM is currently trading at $184.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $186.81 to $196.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 86.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $180.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TM scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.08 (+27.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $180.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TM scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.08 (+27.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$186.81 -
$196.84
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.1% below Wall St target ($234.08)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 18% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$186.81 -
$196.84
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$180.91
Resistance Level
$193.68
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.32
Wall Street Target
$234.08
(+27.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
86.9%
Profit Margin
8.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$178.23
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$172.52
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$167.00
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$184.73
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: 18.8%)
$730.35
(+297%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 18.8%)
$308.34
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 18.8%)
$262.09
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.31
Bull Case
$198.10
(+8%)
Analyst growth -0.8%, PE expands to 9.0
Base Case
$180.09
(-2%)
Market implied -0.8%, PE stable at 8.1
Bear Case
$123.41
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$203.67
(+10.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 05, 2026 6:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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