The Trade Desk (TTD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TTD - The Trade Desk, Inc.

SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
$14.34
0.37 (2.65%) ▲
5d: -4.97%
30d: +6.3%
90d: -24.13%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 10, 2026 at $13.97 · last confirmed Sep 10, 2026

Strength: 7.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
â„šī¸ NEUTRAL: TTD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 5.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.46
Based on -4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.87
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TTD is currently trading at $14.34, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.69 to $16.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.2) compared to its historical average (12.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.8% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TTD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.34, while resistance sits at $15.26.

Market Sentiment: TTD scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $12.69 - $16.16
Company Quality Score 42/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 46.2%

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All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($13.57)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.8% growth with 3.0% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $12.69 - $16.16
Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $13.34
Resistance Level $15.26
Current Trend Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 14.23
Wall Street Target $13.57 (-5.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -23.6%
Profit Margin 13.6%
Valuation Premium vs History +5.8% premium
PE vs Historical 14.2 vs 12.0 STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +5.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $15.17 (+6%)
2-Year Target $16.05 (+12%)
3-Year Target $16.98 (+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 14→12) PE COMPRESSION $14.32 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: -13.2%) $14.82 (+3%)
Base: (SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: -13.2%) $10.45 (-27%)
Bear: (PE: 12.0, Growth: -13.2%) $8.82 (-39%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.84
Bull Case $18.44 (+29%)
Analyst growth 20.0%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case $16.76 (+17%)
Market implied 20.0%, PE stable at 16.6
Bear Case $9.50 (-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:01 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30
Byron Donalds SELL 2026-03-20

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Advanced TTD Option Strategies

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