What is the fair value of TTD stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for TTD to be between $11.87 and $13.71. The current price is $13.16.

What is the analyst price target for TTD?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for TTD is $13.53. This implies a potential upside of 2.8% from current levels.

The Trade Desk (TTD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TTD - The Trade Desk, Inc.

SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.

$13.16

0.57 (4.53%) ▲

5d: +0.23%

30d: +3.79%

90d: -23.89%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 05, 2026 13d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 5, 2026 at $11.98 · last confirmed Oct 21, 2026

Strength: 4.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: TTD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -13.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$9.48

Based on -4.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$5.89

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: TTD is currently trading at $13.16, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.87 to $13.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, TTD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.5% recently.

Market Sentiment: TTD scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $11.87 - $13.71

Company Quality Score 52/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 86.7%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.5%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.53)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.6% growth with 3.0% revenue growth
WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $11.87 - $13.71

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $11.71

Resistance Level $13.31

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 13.10

Wall Street Target $13.53 (+2.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 3.0%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -23.6%

Profit Margin 13.6%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.6% premium

PE vs Historical 13.1 vs 12.1 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $13.50 (+3%)

2-Year Target $13.85 (+5%)

3-Year Target $14.21 (+8%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 13→12) PE COMPRESSION $13.13 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: -13.3%) $14.55 (+11%)

Base: (SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: -13.3%) $9.59 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 11.1, Growth: -13.3%) $8.15 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 15.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.83

Bull Case $16.77 (+27%)

Analyst growth 21.1%, PE expands to 16.7

Base Case $15.24 (+16%)

Market implied 21.1%, PE stable at 15.2

Bear Case $8.56 (-35%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:47 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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