TTD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TTD - The Trade Desk, Inc.
$18.04
-0.24 (-1.31%)
▼
5d:
+4.34%
30d:
-5.8%
90d:
-23.53%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
3d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TTD trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TTD trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -11.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.35
Based on 10.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.67
29.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TTD is currently trading at $18.04, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.78 to $19.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TTD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.70, while resistance sits at $19.51.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.32 (+34.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TTD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.70, while resistance sits at $19.51.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $24.32 (+34.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$17.78 -
$19.31
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.8% below Wall St target ($24.32)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.78 -
$19.31
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.70
Resistance Level
$19.51
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.40
Wall Street Target
$24.32
(+34.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.0%
Profit Margin
14.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 12.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.24
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$14.61
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$13.15
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→12)
$18.79
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 16.0%)
$69.44
(+285%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 16.0%)
$28.14
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 16.0%)
$23.92
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.88
Bull Case
$40.22
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.9
Base Case
$36.56
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.8
Bear Case
$12.43
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$25.77
(+42.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:48 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:48 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:48 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TTD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Byron Donalds
SELL
2026-03-20
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BUY
2026-03-13
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