APP
Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock
SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
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Applovin (APP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$393.68
-11.09 (-2.74%)
▼
5d:
+10.55%
30d:
+50.15%
90d:
+24.8%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
0d
Protect APP Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (17%)
Quality Score
34/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$237.81 – $344.83
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
19.2x
CHEAP
vs 23.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$454.28
+15.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$225.19 / $413.60
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: APP is 14.2% above its trading range ($344.83). Market expects -6.9% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 4, 2026 at $270.96 · last confirmed Nov 10, 2026
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$950.03
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$589.90
33.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APP is currently trading at $393.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $237.81 to $344.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.2) compared to its historical average (23.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 75.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $225.19, while resistance sits at $413.60.
Market Sentiment: APP scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $454.28 (+15.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $225.19, while resistance sits at $413.60.
Market Sentiment: APP scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $454.28 (+15.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$237.81 -
$344.83
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
16.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$237.81 -
$344.83
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$225.19
Resistance Level
$413.60
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
APP is technically overbought (RSI 70). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+14.2% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($454.28)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.21
Wall Street Target
$454.28
(+15.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.5%
Profit Margin
65.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.2 vs 23.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$366.52
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$341.23
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$317.68
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→24)
$393.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 26.1%)
$816.87
(+108%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.2, Growth: 26.1%)
$789.95
(+101%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.3, Growth: 26.1%)
$671.46
(+71%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.85
Bull Case
$614.60
(+56%)
Analyst growth 38.0%, PE expands to 30.0
Base Case
$558.72
(+42%)
Market implied 38.0%, PE stable at 27.3
Bear Case
$275.24
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.2 to 23.8
Stabilization Target:
$487.86
(+23.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.9%
Share APP Analysis
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (APP)
Bearish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 13, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
AppLovin's stock price has surged 47% in the past month, reaching $398.98, despite being far below its 52-week high of $738.01. The rally came after the company reported strong Q3 2026 earnings, with revenue up 55.5% YoY and EPS beating consensus.
Key Retail Themes:
AppLovin's earnings report
Stock price performance
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 12:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Advanced APP Option Strategies
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