APP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APP - Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock
$470.33
0.94 (0.20%)
▲
5d:
-9.7%
30d:
-3.2%
90d:
+2.48%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: APP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: APP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1023.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$635.73
26.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APP is currently trading at $470.32, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $475.22 to $571.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.3) compared to its historical average (28.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 113.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $447.35, while resistance sits at $567.66.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $648.10 (+38.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $447.35, while resistance sits at $567.66.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $648.10 (+38.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$475.22 -
$571.03
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.1% below Wall St target ($648.10)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.7% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$475.22 -
$571.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$447.35
Resistance Level
$567.66
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.32
Wall Street Target
$648.10
(+38.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
59.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
113.1%
Profit Margin
64.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.3 vs 28.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$431.37
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$396.43
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$364.32
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→29)
$470.10
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 30.6%)
$1044.65
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 30.6%)
$1019.41
(+117%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 30.6%)
$866.50
(+85%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.51
Bull Case
$944.06
(+101%)
Analyst growth 82.7%, PE expands to 44.9
Base Case
$858.24
(+83%)
Market implied 82.7%, PE stable at 40.8
Bear Case
$319.40
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.3 to 28.8
Stabilization Target:
$605.68
(+29.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-18
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