Applovin (APP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APP - Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock
$268.22
-13.09 (-4.65%)
▼
5d:
-13.69%
30d:
-15.93%
90d:
-50.68%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 1, 2026 at $281.31 · last confirmed Oct 2, 2026
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: APP is down 13.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: APP is down 13.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$973.83
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$604.67
55.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APP is currently trading at $268.22, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $298.55 to $326.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.1) compared to its historical average (25.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 57.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $266.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: APP scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $497.05 (+76.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $266.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: APP scores 29/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $497.05 (+76.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$298.55 -
$326.03
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding APP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (29/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 76.7% below Wall St target ($497.05)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$298.55 -
$326.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$266.84
Resistance Level
$336.94
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.06
Wall Street Target
$497.05
(+76.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
57.0%
Profit Margin
64.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 25.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$253.18
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$227.86
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$205.07
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→25)
$367.47
(+31%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 27.7%)
$850.15
(+202%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 27.7%)
$586.07
(+108%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 27.7%)
$498.16
(+77%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.37
Bull Case
$516.61
(+84%)
Analyst growth 61.7%, PE expands to 25.8
Base Case
$469.65
(+67%)
Market implied 61.7%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$197.49
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.1 to 25.2
Stabilization Target:
$504.08
(+79.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+79.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 4:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced APP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APP price and gamma walls.
