Applovin (APP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APP - Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock
$323.96
9.47 (3.01%)
▲
5d:
+3.31%
30d:
+6.65%
90d:
-32.31%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 27, 2026 at $312.63 · last confirmed Sep 11, 2026
Strength: 7.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: APP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: APP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$975.49
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$605.71
46.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APP is currently trading at $323.96, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $293.58 to $357.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.2) compared to its historical average (25.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 57.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $300.09, while resistance sits at $335.45. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $508.39 (+56.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $300.09, while resistance sits at $335.45. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $508.39 (+56.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$293.58 -
$357.48
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding APP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 56.9% below Wall St target ($508.39)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (51/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$293.58 -
$357.48
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$300.09
Resistance Level
$335.45
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.17
Wall Street Target
$508.39
(+56.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
57.0%
Profit Margin
64.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 25.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$291.56
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$262.41
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$236.17
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→26)
$376.87
(+16%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 27.8%)
$844.09
(+161%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 27.8%)
$676.61
(+109%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 27.8%)
$575.12
(+78%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.40
Bull Case
$517.29
(+60%)
Analyst growth 49.5%, PE expands to 25.8
Base Case
$470.26
(+45%)
Market implied 49.5%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$213.85
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.2 to 25.8
Stabilization Target:
$516.96
(+59.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+59.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 1:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-18
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Advanced APP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APP price and gamma walls.
