Applovin (APP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APP - Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock
$331.46
-2.78 (-0.83%)
▼
5d:
+6.23%
30d:
+5.08%
90d:
-36.36%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 27, 2026 at $312.63 · last confirmed Sep 14, 2026
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: APP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: APP shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$973.80
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$604.65
45.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APP is currently trading at $331.46, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $304.96 to $326.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.6) compared to its historical average (25.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 57.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $338.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $501.94 (+51.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $338.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $501.94 (+51.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$304.96 -
$326.65
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding APP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.4% below Wall St target ($501.94)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$304.96 -
$326.65
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$300.09
Resistance Level
$338.34
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.57
Wall Street Target
$501.94
(+51.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
57.0%
Profit Margin
64.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 25.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$298.31
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$268.48
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$241.63
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→26)
$374.75
(+13%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 27.7%)
$841.52
(+154%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 27.7%)
$690.68
(+108%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 27.7%)
$587.08
(+77%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.02
Bull Case
$564.84
(+70%)
Analyst growth 53.6%, PE expands to 28.2
Base Case
$513.49
(+55%)
Market implied 53.6%, PE stable at 25.7
Bear Case
$227.28
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.6 to 25.7
Stabilization Target:
$514.06
(+55.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+55.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 15, 2026 9:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
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Advanced APP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APP price and gamma walls.
