Applovin (APP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APP - Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock
$262.92
-1.36 (-0.51%)
▼
5d:
-1.21%
30d:
-15.86%
90d:
-36.3%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 20, 2026 at $274.78 · last confirmed Oct 23, 2026
Strength: 5.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: APP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: APP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$945.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$586.80
55.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APP is currently trading at $262.92, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $267.94 to $316.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.3) compared to its historical average (24.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 57.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $260.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $476.85 (+80.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $260.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $476.85 (+80.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$267.94 -
$316.03
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding APP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 80.4% below Wall St target ($476.85)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (50/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$267.94 -
$316.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$260.59
Resistance Level
$283.66
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.29
Wall Street Target
$476.85
(+80.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
57.0%
Profit Margin
64.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 24.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$237.85
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$214.07
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$192.66
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→24)
$353.78
(+34%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 27.1%)
$811.63
(+207%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 27.1%)
$543.03
(+106%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 27.1%)
$461.57
(+75%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.01
Bull Case
$450.51
(+71%)
Analyst growth 52.9%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$409.56
(+55%)
Market implied 52.9%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$182.17
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.3 to 24.4
Stabilization Target:
$485.30
(+83.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+83.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 1:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced APP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APP price and gamma walls.
