UMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMC - United Microelectronic Corp.
$23.84
0.38 (1.62%)
▲
5d:
+0.04%
30d:
+15.28%
90d:
+145.77%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 15.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 15.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.00
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMC is currently trading at $23.84, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.26 to $26.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 29.2) compared to its historical average (19.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 15.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.01, while resistance sits at $27.27.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $16.25. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.01, while resistance sits at $27.27.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $16.25. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$21.26 -
$26.55
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 31.9% above Wall St target ($16.25)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 15.3% growth expectation is conservative given 108% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.26 -
$26.55
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.01
Resistance Level
$27.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.24
Wall Street Target
$16.25
(-31.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
108.1%
Profit Margin
20.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+15.3% premium
PE vs Historical
29.2 vs 19.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+15.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.49
(+15%)
2-Year Target
$31.69
(+33%)
3-Year Target
$36.54
(+53%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.87
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.2, Growth: 17.8%)
$38.96
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.8%)
$29.02
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 17.8%)
$24.66
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.62
Bull Case
$35.21
(+48%)
Analyst growth 31.5%, PE expands to 43.2
Base Case
$32.01
(+34%)
Market implied 31.5%, PE stable at 39.3
Bear Case
$16.55
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:54 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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