UMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMC - United Microelectronic Corp.
$26.20
-1.30 (-4.73%)
▼
5d:
+13.52%
30d:
+42.78%
90d:
+188.23%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: UMC is 11.0% above its trading range ($23.60). Market expects 22.4% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: UMC is 11.0% above its trading range ($23.60). Market expects 22.4% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.82
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMC is currently trading at $26.20, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.46 to $23.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 32.1) compared to its historical average (17.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 22.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.70, while resistance sits at $28.27. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: UMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $10.07. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.70, while resistance sits at $28.27. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: UMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $10.07. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$18.46 -
$23.60
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
38.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+11.0% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.7%)
- BEARISH: Trading 61.5% above Wall St target ($10.07)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 22.4% growth expectation is conservative given 108% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.46 -
$23.60
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.70
Resistance Level
$28.28
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.14
Wall Street Target
$10.07
(-61.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
108.1%
Profit Margin
20.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+22.4% premium
PE vs Historical
32.1 vs 17.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+22.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.07
(+22%)
2-Year Target
$39.25
(+50%)
3-Year Target
$48.04
(+83%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.16
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.1, Growth: 17.8%)
$42.81
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.8%)
$29.02
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 17.8%)
$23.31
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.62
Bull Case
$39.78
(+52%)
Analyst growth 31.5%, PE expands to 48.8
Base Case
$36.16
(+38%)
Market implied 31.5%, PE stable at 44.4
Bear Case
$18.70
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 2:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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