United Microelectronic (UMC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMC - United Microelectronic Corp.
$22.64
0.52 (2.35%)
▲
5d:
+14.0%
30d:
+17.24%
90d:
+9.48%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.35
Based on -0.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMC is currently trading at $22.64, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.45 to $20.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.8) compared to its historical average (20.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UMC scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.49. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UMC scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.49. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$18.45 -
$20.95
Company Quality Score
21/100
(STRONG SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
14.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.1% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 18.3% above Wall St target ($18.49)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 8.8% growth expectation is conservative given 375% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 21/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.45 -
$20.95
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.45
Resistance Level
$22.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.78
Wall Street Target
$18.49
(-18.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
374.6%
Profit Margin
33.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.8% premium
PE vs Historical
25.8 vs 20.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.63
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$26.80
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$29.16
(+29%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.62
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.8, Growth: -4.4%)
$19.80
(+-13%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: -4.4%)
$15.49
(-32%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: -4.4%)
$13.16
(-42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 21.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.02
Bull Case
$20.95
(-8%)
Analyst growth -13.9%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$19.04
(-16%)
Market implied -13.9%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$15.04
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 3:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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