UMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMC - United Microelectronic Corp.
$21.42
-1.04 (-4.63%)
▼
5d:
-3.6%
30d:
+65.02%
90d:
+116.8%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UMC trades at premium valuation expecting 17.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: UMC trades at premium valuation expecting 17.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.93
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMC is currently trading at $21.42, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.54 to $20.58. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 26.6) compared to its historical average (16.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 17.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.12, while resistance sits at $23.69. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: UMC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $10.36. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.12, while resistance sits at $23.69. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: UMC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $10.36. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$13.54 -
$20.58
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.6%)
- BEARISH: Trading 51.6% above Wall St target ($10.36)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 17.8% growth expectation is conservative given 108% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.54 -
$20.58
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.12
Resistance Level
$23.69
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.64
Wall Street Target
$10.36
(-51.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
108.1%
Profit Margin
20.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+17.8% premium
PE vs Historical
26.6 vs 16.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+17.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.23
(+18%)
2-Year Target
$29.72
(+39%)
3-Year Target
$35.02
(+64%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.42
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.6, Growth: 15.8%)
$33.28
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 15.8%)
$27.37
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.3, Growth: 15.8%)
$20.36
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.63
Bull Case
$31.13
(+37%)
Analyst growth 27.4%, PE expands to 38.8
Base Case
$28.30
(+25%)
Market implied 27.4%, PE stable at 35.3
Bear Case
$15.11
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 7:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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