United Microelectronic (UMC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$15.76
-0.32 (-1.99%)
▼
5d:
+17.79%
30d:
-26.36%
90d:
-17.7%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
LOW Confidence (86%)
Quality Score
55/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$15.95 – $22.00
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
17.5x
CHEAP
vs 20.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$17.20
+9.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$13.32 / $17.06
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: UMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.83
Based on -8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMC is currently trading at $15.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.95 to $22.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.5) compared to its historical average (20.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.32, while resistance sits at $17.06.
Market Sentiment: UMC scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.32, while resistance sits at $17.06.
Market Sentiment: UMC scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$15.95 -
$22.00
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$15.95 -
$22.00
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$13.32
Resistance Level
$17.06
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.20)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 14% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.52
Wall Street Target
$17.20
(+9.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Profit Margin
31.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 20.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.88
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$14.04
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$13.26
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→21)
$15.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -20.7%)
$13.02
(+-17%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: -20.7%)
$11.49
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: -20.7%)
$9.77
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.06
Bull Case
$15.01
(-5%)
Analyst growth -15.1%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$13.65
(-13%)
Market implied -15.1%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$10.93
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.5 to 20.8
Stabilization Target:
$18.71
(+18.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.7%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (UMC)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
Last Tracked
Jul 25, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on UMC are bullish (sentiment score +0.20) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 5:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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