United Microelectronic (UMC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMC - United Microelectronic Corp.
$26.27
1.06 (4.20%)
▲
5d:
+8.06%
30d:
+31.55%
90d:
+1.7%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.87
Based on -0.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMC is currently trading at $26.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.16 to $24.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 29.9) compared to its historical average (20.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 13.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: UMC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.49. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $26.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: UMC scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $18.49. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$20.16 -
$24.72
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.3% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.2%)
- BEARISH: Trading 29.6% above Wall St target ($18.49)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 13.2% growth expectation is conservative given 375% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.16 -
$24.72
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.42
Resistance Level
$26.37
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.91
Wall Street Target
$18.49
(-29.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
374.6%
Profit Margin
33.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+13.2% premium
PE vs Historical
29.9 vs 20.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+13.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.74
(+13%)
2-Year Target
$33.66
(+28%)
3-Year Target
$38.11
(+45%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.24
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.9, Growth: -4.4%)
$22.97
(+-13%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: -4.4%)
$15.66
(-40%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: -4.4%)
$13.31
(-49%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 23.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.07
Bull Case
$22.76
(-13%)
Analyst growth -17.9%, PE expands to 25.9
Base Case
$20.69
(-21%)
Market implied -17.9%, PE stable at 23.6
Bear Case
$17.14
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 8:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:00 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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