United Microelectronic (UMC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UMC - United Microelectronic Corp.
$18.78
0.24 (1.32%)
▲
5d:
-5.27%
30d:
-22.1%
90d:
-1.6%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: UMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.22
Based on -0.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UMC is currently trading at $18.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.93 to $24.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.1) is in line with its historical norms (21.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$20.93 -
$24.95
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($19.12)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.93 -
$24.95
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.31
Resistance Level
$23.28
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.10
Wall Street Target
$19.12
(+3.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
374.6%
Profit Margin
33.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
21.1 vs 21.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.57
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$18.60
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$18.64
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.55
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.1, Growth: -4.4%)
$16.20
(+-13%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: -4.4%)
$15.25
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: -4.4%)
$12.96
(-30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 18.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.06
Bull Case
$18.06
(-3%)
Analyst growth -17.2%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$16.42
(-11%)
Market implied -17.2%, PE stable at 18.7
Bear Case
$13.48
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 10:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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