USPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
USPH - US Physical Therapy Inc
$72.04
-0.50 (-0.69%)
▼
5d:
-1.83%
30d:
+14.66%
90d:
-5.81%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: USPH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: USPH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$130.14
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.81
10.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: USPH is currently trading at $72.04, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $63.02 to $71.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.2) is in line with its historical norms (23.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USPH is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $65.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: USPH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.67 (+29.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USPH is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $65.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: USPH has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.67 (+29.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$63.02 -
$71.02
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.1% below Wall St target ($93.67)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$63.02 -
$71.02
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.06
Resistance Level
$65.29
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.25
Wall Street Target
$93.67
(+29.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Profit Margin
4.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.3 vs 23.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.22
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$67.97
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$65.80
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→23)
$72.44
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.7%)
$118.07
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.3, Growth: 16.7%)
$115.22
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.1, Growth: 16.7%)
$97.93
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 25.58 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.84
Bull Case
$87.59
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 26.9
Base Case
$72.54
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 25.6
Bear Case
$55.49
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 23.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.3 to 23.4
Stabilization Target:
$79.87
(+10.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 10:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is USPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Graham D Reeve
SELL
662 shares
2026-03-11
Richard Binstein
SELL
3000 shares
2026-03-06
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