US Physical Therapy (USPH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
USPH - US Physical Therapy Inc
$86.28
-0.74 (-0.85%)
▼
5d:
+1.61%
30d:
+3.74%
90d:
+18.24%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: USPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: USPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$125.20
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: USPH is currently trading at $86.28, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $82.58 to $85.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.8) is in line with its historical norms (23.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.00 (+12.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.00 (+12.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$82.58 -
$85.73
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($97.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.1% growth with 8.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$82.58 -
$85.73
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.76
Resistance Level
$87.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.76
Wall Street Target
$97.00
(+12.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-56.5%
Profit Margin
4.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
25.8 vs 23.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$88.95
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$91.71
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$94.56
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$86.28
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.8, Growth: 15.6%)
$133.28
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.6%)
$102.77
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 15.6%)
$87.35
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 27.25 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.17
Bull Case
$104.18
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 28.6
Base Case
$86.28
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 27.3
Bear Case
$66.00
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 24.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 8:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is USPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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