Vipshop (VIPS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$13.14
-0.39 (-2.88%)
▼
5d:
-4.58%
30d:
+2.02%
90d:
-7.2%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (26%)
Quality Score
42/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$12.55 – $13.39
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
0.8x
FAIR
vs 0.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$15.89
+17.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$12.40 / $14.14
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VIPS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.28
19.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIPS is currently trading at $13.14, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.55 to $13.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 0.8) is in line with its historical norms (0.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 203.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIPS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.40, while resistance sits at $14.14.
Market Sentiment: VIPS scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.89 (+17.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIPS is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.40, while resistance sits at $14.14.
Market Sentiment: VIPS scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.89 (+17.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.55 -
$13.39
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$12.55 -
$13.39
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$12.40
Resistance Level
$14.14
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($15.89)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.80
Wall Street Target
$15.89
(+17.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
203.2%
Profit Margin
9.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.8 vs 0.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.49
(0%)
2-Year Target
$13.45
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$13.41
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.34
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 26.2%)
$671.51
(+4863%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.8, Growth: 26.2%)
$27.19
(+101%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.7, Growth: 26.2%)
$23.11
(+71%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (5x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 4.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.97
Bull Case
$30.12
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 5.1
Base Case
$27.38
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 4.6
Bear Case
$9.31
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (VIPS)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Aug 10, 2023
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on VIPS are bearish (sentiment score +0.00) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 1:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VIPS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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