VINCE (VNCE) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VNCE - VINCE HOLDING CORP.
$12.86
-0.47 (-3.53%)
▼
5d:
+15.96%
30d:
+30.96%
90d:
+99.07%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Dec 08, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VNCE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VNCE shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.22
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VNCE is currently trading at $12.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.95 to $12.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 40.2) compared to its historical average (16.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 34.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VNCE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.02, while resistance sits at $13.78. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: VNCE scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+16.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VNCE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.02, while resistance sits at $13.78. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: VNCE scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+16.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$7.95 -
$12.31
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($15.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 34.9% growth with 11.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 37/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.95 -
$12.31
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.02
Resistance Level
$13.78
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 16, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
40.19
Wall Street Target
$15.00
(+16.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.0%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+34.9% premium
PE vs Historical
40.2 vs 16.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+34.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.35
(+35%)
2-Year Target
$23.40
(+82%)
3-Year Target
$31.57
(+146%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 40→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.88
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 40.2, Growth: 33.3%)
$30.48
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 33.3%)
$15.06
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.4, Growth: 33.3%)
$12.44
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 22.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.58
Bull Case
$8.09
(-37%)
Analyst growth -44.8%, PE expands to 25.3
Base Case
$7.35
(-43%)
Market implied -44.8%, PE stable at 23.0
Bear Case
$9.06
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 17, 2026 9:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VNCE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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