VTEX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VTEX - VTEX
$3.65
-0.03 (-0.82%)
▼
5d:
-2.41%
30d:
-5.93%
90d:
-2.14%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VTEX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VTEX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.99
Based on 13.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.96
26.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VTEX is currently trading at $3.65, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.88 to $4.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (15.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 262.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.48, while resistance sits at $4.11.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.90 (+61.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.48, while resistance sits at $4.11.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.90 (+61.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.88 -
$4.33
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 61.6% below Wall St target ($5.90)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.88 -
$4.33
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.48
Resistance Level
$4.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.25
Wall Street Target
$5.90
(+61.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
262.5%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 15.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.47
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$3.31
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$3.15
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$3.66
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 23.4%)
$10.38
(+185%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 23.4%)
$6.86
(+88%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 23.4%)
$5.83
(+60%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.17
Bull Case
$6.56
(+80%)
Analyst growth 62.0%, PE expands to 23.8
Base Case
$5.96
(+63%)
Market implied 62.0%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$2.50
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.3 to 15.4
Stabilization Target:
$4.24
(+16.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 7:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VTEX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carmo Thomaz Junior Gera…
SELL
4808 shares
2026-04-20
De Faria Mariano Gomide
SELL
4808 shares
2026-04-20
Andre Spolidoro Ferreira…
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-16
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