VTEX (VTEX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VTEX - VTEX
$3.60
0.05 (1.41%)
â˛
5d:
-0.28%
30d:
-6.98%
90d:
+0.0%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VTEX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VTEX is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.16
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.07
29.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VTEX is currently trading at $3.60, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.49 to $3.96. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (15.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 262.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.44, while resistance sits at $3.72.
Market Sentiment: VTEX scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.57 (+54.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.44, while resistance sits at $3.72.
Market Sentiment: VTEX scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.57 (+54.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$3.49 -
$3.96
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 54.7% below Wall St target ($5.57)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.49 -
$3.96
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.44
Resistance Level
$3.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.06
Wall Street Target
$5.57
(+54.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
262.5%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 15.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.42
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$3.26
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$3.10
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â15)
$3.60
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 26.2%)
$11.19
(+211%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 26.2%)
$7.24
(+101%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 26.2%)
$6.16
(+71%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.17
Bull Case
$6.33
(+76%)
Analyst growth 62.2%, PE expands to 23.0
Base Case
$5.76
(+60%)
Market implied 62.2%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case
$2.41
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 15.2
Stabilization Target:
$4.19
(+16.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 9:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VTEX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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