VTEX (VTEX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VTEX - VTEX
$4.17
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-0.71%
30d:
+15.83%
90d:
-0.95%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VTEX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: VTEX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.00
16.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VTEX is currently trading at $4.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.61 to $4.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.1) is in line with its historical norms (15.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.96, while resistance sits at $4.44.
Market Sentiment: VTEX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.57 (+33.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.96, while resistance sits at $4.44.
Market Sentiment: VTEX scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.57 (+33.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$3.61 -
$4.09
Company Quality Score
23/100
(STRONG SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
29.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.6% below Wall St target ($5.57)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 23/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.61 -
$4.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.96
Resistance Level
$4.44
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.13
Wall Street Target
$5.57
(+33.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
262.5%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 15.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.18
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$4.19
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$4.20
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.16
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 26.2%)
$11.01
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 26.2%)
$8.39
(+101%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: 26.2%)
$7.13
(+71%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.17
Bull Case
$7.44
(+78%)
Analyst growth 62.2%, PE expands to 27.0
Base Case
$6.76
(+62%)
Market implied 62.2%, PE stable at 24.5
Bear Case
$2.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 6:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VTEX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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