VTEX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VTEX - VTEX
$4.40
0.09 (2.09%)
▲
5d:
+4.51%
30d:
+6.28%
90d:
+12.24%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VTEX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VTEX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.92
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.92
10.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VTEX is currently trading at $4.40, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.82 to $4.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.7) is in line with its historical norms (15.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.84, while resistance sits at $4.60.
Market Sentiment: VTEX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.01 (+36.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.84, while resistance sits at $4.60.
Market Sentiment: VTEX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.01 (+36.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$3.82 -
$4.27
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.6% below Wall St target ($6.01)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.82 -
$4.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.84
Resistance Level
$4.60
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.67
Wall Street Target
$6.01
(+36.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
390.5%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 15.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.51
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$4.63
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$4.75
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.39
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 34.1%)
$13.21
(+200%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 34.1%)
$10.62
(+141%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 34.1%)
$9.03
(+105%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.13
Bull Case
$9.48
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 36.5
Base Case
$8.62
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 33.2
Bear Case
$2.93
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 2:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VTEX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Carmo Thomaz Junior Gera…
SELL
4808 shares
2026-04-20
De Faria Mariano Gomide
SELL
4808 shares
2026-04-20
Andre Spolidoro Ferreira…
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-16
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