VTEX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VTEX - VTEX
$3.68
0.18 (5.14%)
▲
5d:
+1.38%
30d:
+2.79%
90d:
-4.42%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VTEX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VTEX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.39
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.21
29.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VTEX is currently trading at $3.68, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.51 to $3.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 390.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.50, while resistance sits at $4.14. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: VTEX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.01 (+63.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.50, while resistance sits at $4.14. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: VTEX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.01 (+63.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$3.51 -
$3.78
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 63.3% below Wall St target ($6.01)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.51 -
$3.78
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.50
Resistance Level
$4.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.24
Wall Street Target
$6.01
(+63.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
390.5%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 15.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.49
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$3.31
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$3.15
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$3.68
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 41.3%)
$17.07
(+364%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 41.3%)
$10.37
(+182%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 41.3%)
$8.82
(+140%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.13
Bull Case
$7.70
(+109%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.6
Base Case
$7.00
(+90%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.9
Bear Case
$2.38
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$4.31
(+17.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 8:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VTEX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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2026-04-20
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4808 shares
2026-04-20
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SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-16
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