VTEX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VTEX - VTEX
$3.50
-0.08 (-2.23%)
▼
5d:
-2.78%
30d:
-6.17%
90d:
-9.79%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VTEX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VTEX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.39
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.21
32.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VTEX is currently trading at $3.50, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.50 to $3.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.6) compared to its historical average (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 390.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VTEX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.01 (+71.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VTEX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VTEX has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.01 (+71.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.50 -
$3.78
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 71.7% below Wall St target ($6.01)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.50 -
$3.78
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.50
Resistance Level
$4.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.59
Wall Street Target
$6.01
(+71.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
390.5%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 15.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.27
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$3.05
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$2.84
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$3.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 41.3%)
$17.07
(+388%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 41.3%)
$9.87
(+182%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 41.3%)
$8.39
(+140%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.13
Bull Case
$7.95
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 30.6
Base Case
$7.23
(+107%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 27.8
Bear Case
$2.46
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$4.31
(+23.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VTEX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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2026-04-20
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1500 shares
2026-04-16
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