YB
Yuanbao Inc. American Depositary Shares
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Yuanbao (YB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$10.83
+0.59 (+5.82%)
â˛
5d:
-4.63%
30d:
-5.13%
90d:
-19.93%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (95%)
Quality Score
46/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$10.73 â $11.93
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
0.3x
CHEAP
vs 0.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$15.59
+44.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$10.20 / $11.61
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: YB is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -20.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.45
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.29
40.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YB is currently trading at $10.82, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.73 to $11.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.3) compared to its historical average (0.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YB is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.20, while resistance sits at $11.61. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: YB scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.59 (+44.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YB is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $10.20, while resistance sits at $11.61. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: YB scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.59 (+44.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$10.73 -
$11.93
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
95.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$10.73 -
$11.93
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$10.20
Resistance Level
$11.61
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (62/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.0% below Wall St target ($15.59)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.32
Wall Street Target
$15.59
(+44.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.4%
Profit Margin
29.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.3 vs 0.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.74
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$8.77
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$7.89
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0â1)
$14.74
(+36%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.7%)
$931.65
(+8507%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.3, Growth: 11.7%)
$15.07
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.3, Growth: 11.7%)
$12.81
(+18%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (2x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 2.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.44
Bull Case
$22.51
(+108%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 2.5
Base Case
$20.46
(+89%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 2.3
Bear Case
$6.96
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.3 to 0.6
Stabilization Target:
$20.22
(+86.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+86.8%
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Net
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