Yuanbao (YB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YB - Yuanbao Inc. American Depositary Shares
$11.30
-0.11 (-0.96%)
▼
5d:
+1.99%
30d:
-7.45%
90d:
-15.17%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Dec 02, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: YB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: YB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.36
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.34
47.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YB is currently trading at $11.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.55 to $12.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.3) compared to its historical average (0.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.59 (+37.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.59 (+37.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.55 -
$12.62
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.9% below Wall St target ($15.59)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.55 -
$12.62
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.01
Resistance Level
$12.90
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.34
Wall Street Target
$15.59
(+37.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
30.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.4%
Profit Margin
29.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.3 vs 0.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.17
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$9.15
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$8.24
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→1)
$17.19
(+52%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 11.7%)
$931.65
(+8145%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.3, Growth: 11.7%)
$15.73
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.3, Growth: 11.7%)
$13.37
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (3x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 2.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.44
Bull Case
$25.10
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 2.8
Base Case
$22.82
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 2.6
Bear Case
$7.76
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.3 to 0.7
Stabilization Target:
$23.59
(+108.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+108.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 3:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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