YMM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YMM - Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American Depositary Shares (each representing 20 Class A Ordinary Shares)
$8.17
0.03 (0.37%)
▲
5d:
-4.78%
30d:
-11.87%
90d:
-3.54%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 19, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: YMM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: YMM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.34
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.53
14.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YMM is currently trading at $8.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.41 to $9.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.4) compared to its historical average (1.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YMM is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $8.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: YMM scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.54 (+53.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YMM is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $8.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: YMM scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.54 (+53.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.41 -
$9.34
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 53.5% below Wall St target ($12.54)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.41 -
$9.34
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.11
Resistance Level
$8.89
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.40
Wall Street Target
$12.54
(+53.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Profit Margin
33.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.4 vs 1.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.76
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$7.37
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$7.00
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$8.00
(-2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 17.1%)
$188.79
(+2211%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.4, Growth: 17.1%)
$13.11
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 17.1%)
$11.14
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.58
Bull Case
$17.91
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.4
Base Case
$16.28
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.0
Bear Case
$5.54
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.4 to 1.6
Stabilization Target:
$9.33
(+14.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YMM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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