YMM
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American Depositary Shares (each representing 20 Class A Ordinary Shares)
Services-Prepackaged Software
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YMM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$8.69
+0.20 (+2.36%)
â˛
5d:
-5.13%
30d:
-1.47%
90d:
-1.7%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (72%)
Quality Score
48/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$8.33 â $8.86
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
1.5x
FAIR
vs 1.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$12.53
+44.2% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$8.37 / $9.28
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: YMM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -2.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.27
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.48
8.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YMM is currently trading at $8.69, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.33 to $8.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.5) is in line with its historical norms (1.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YMM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.37, while resistance sits at $9.28.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.53 (+44.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YMM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.37, while resistance sits at $9.28.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.53 (+44.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$8.33 -
$8.86
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$8.33 -
$8.86
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$8.37
Resistance Level
$9.28
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.2% below Wall St target ($12.53)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.49
Wall Street Target
$12.53
(+44.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Profit Margin
33.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.5 vs 1.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.50
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$8.31
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$8.13
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1â2)
$8.73
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.9%)
$184.88
(+2028%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.5, Growth: 16.9%)
$13.88
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.3, Growth: 16.9%)
$11.79
(+36%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.57
Bull Case
$18.68
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 16.4
Base Case
$16.98
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case
$5.77
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.5 to 1.6
Stabilization Target:
$9.33
(+7.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.3%
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Last updated: November 14, 2026 6:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 AM
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