YMM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YMM - Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American Depositary Shares (each representing 20 Class A Ordinary Shares)
$8.29
-0.06 (-0.72%)
âŧ
5d:
-5.26%
30d:
+1.59%
90d:
-10.96%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 16, 2026
22d
Get Alerted When YMM Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: YMM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: YMM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.30
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.50
12.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YMM is currently trading at $8.29, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.14 to $8.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.4) compared to its historical average (1.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YMM is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $8.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.53 (+51.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YMM is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $8.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.53 (+51.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$8.14 -
$8.62
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 51.2% below Wall St target ($12.53)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.14 -
$8.62
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.21
Resistance Level
$8.92
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.42
Wall Street Target
$12.53
(+51.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Profit Margin
33.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.4 vs 1.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.96
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$7.64
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$7.33
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1â2)
$8.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 17.0%)
$185.62
(+2139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.4, Growth: 17.0%)
$13.29
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 17.0%)
$11.30
(+36%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.57
Bull Case
$18.37
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case
$16.70
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$5.68
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.4 to 1.6
Stabilization Target:
$9.33
(+12.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 12:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:18 AM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is YMM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Software - Application Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Software - Application by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
SHOP
Shopify Inc |
STRONG BUY
54 analysts |
$176 | 49 HOLD |
|
ADSK
Autodesk Inc |
STRONG BUY
36 analysts |
$308 | 32 SELL |
|
ESTC
Elastic NV |
BUY
30 analysts |
$112 | 45 HOLD |
|
DT
Dynatrace Holdings LLC |
STRONG BUY
37 analysts |
$63 | 32 SELL |
|
FROG
Jfrog Ltd |
STRONG BUY
23 analysts |
$112 | 50 HOLD |