ADT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADT - ADT Inc.
$7.88
0.24 (3.14%)
▲
5d:
+10.21%
30d:
+15.37%
90d:
+4.37%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ADT is 8.1% above its trading range ($7.29). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ADT is 8.1% above its trading range ($7.29). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.59
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.95
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADT is currently trading at $7.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.56 to $7.29. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (7.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $7.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $7.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$6.56 -
$7.29
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.1% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($8.23)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.7% growth with 1.9% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Extended 8.1% above its trading range - wait for pullback
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.56 -
$7.29
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.76
Resistance Level
$7.97
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.97
Wall Street Target
$8.23
(+4.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.1%
Profit Margin
11.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 7.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.01
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$8.15
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$8.29
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$7.90
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 6.0%)
$24.44
(+210%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 6.0%)
$9.40
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 6.0%)
$7.99
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.72
Bull Case
$11.54
(+46%)
Analyst growth 37.3%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$10.49
(+33%)
Market implied 37.3%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$5.20
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 5:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David A Scott
BUY
7300 shares
2026-03-05
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