ALLE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALLE - Allegion Public Limited Company
$136.13
-0.50 (-0.37%)
▼
5d:
-2.86%
30d:
+5.24%
90d:
-6.0%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALLE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALLE trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$210.96
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$130.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALLE is currently trading at $136.12, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $130.06 to $138.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.3) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALLE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $132.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALLE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $165.18 (+20.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALLE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $132.84. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALLE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $165.18 (+20.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$130.06 -
$138.22
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.9% below Wall St target ($165.18)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$130.06 -
$138.22
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$132.84
Resistance Level
$142.01
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.28
Wall Street Target
$165.18
(+20.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.0%
Profit Margin
15.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 16.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$131.30
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$126.18
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$121.26
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$136.75
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.0%)
$269.78
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 9.0%)
$176.84
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 9.0%)
$150.31
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.32
Bull Case
$194.25
(+42%)
Analyst growth 30.7%, PE expands to 20.3
Base Case
$176.59
(+29%)
Market implied 30.7%, PE stable at 18.5
Bear Case
$91.85
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$154.08
(+12.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALLE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Sue Main
BUY
2000 shares
2026-03-11
Steven Mizell
SELL
1000 shares
2026-02-19
Steven Mizell
SELL
400 shares
2026-02-18
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