NSSC
Napco Security Technologies, Inc
COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT, NEC
Napco Security Technologies (NSSC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$30.62
-0.72 (-2.30%)
▼
5d:
-3.56%
30d:
-15.37%
90d:
-19.97%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
57/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$32.35 – $38.54
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
18.9x
CHEAP
vs 25.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$44.33
+44.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$29.36 / $40.22
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: NSSC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.07
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.19
10.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NSSC is currently trading at $30.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.35 to $38.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.9) compared to its historical average (25.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 5.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NSSC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $29.36, while resistance sits at $40.22.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.33 (+44.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NSSC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $29.36, while resistance sits at $40.22.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.33 (+44.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$32.35 -
$38.54
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$32.35 -
$38.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$29.36
Resistance Level
$40.22
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.8% below Wall St target ($44.33)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.90
Wall Street Target
$44.33
(+44.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Profit Margin
21.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.9 vs 25.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.77
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$25.19
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$22.85
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→25)
$30.58
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.7%)
$41.35
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.9, Growth: 8.7%)
$39.35
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.1, Growth: 8.7%)
$33.45
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.23
Bull Case
$45.40
(+48%)
Analyst growth 31.7%, PE expands to 28.0
Base Case
$41.28
(+35%)
Market implied 31.7%, PE stable at 25.5
Bear Case
$21.31
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.9 to 25.3
Stabilization Target:
$40.99
(+33.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.9%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NSSC)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 2, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
The latest article previews Napco's (NSSC) upcoming earnings report, noting the company's positive revenue growth trend and reconfirmed analyst estimates. Napco has outperformed in recent quarters and is expected to report a 5.9% revenue increase this quarter.
Key Retail Themes:
Positive revenue growth trend
Reconfirmed analyst estimates
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NSSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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