NSSC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NSSC - Napco Security Technologies, Inc
$38.09
0.32 (0.85%)
â˛
5d:
-0.6%
30d:
+6.81%
90d:
+3.82%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NSSC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NSSC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.8% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.07
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NSSC is currently trading at $38.09, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.04 to $39.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.5) compared to its historical average (26.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NSSC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.33 (+32.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NSSC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.33 (+32.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$36.04 -
$39.43
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.1% below Wall St target ($50.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.04 -
$39.43
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.13
Resistance Level
$41.43
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.51
Wall Street Target
$50.33
(+32.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.4%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.5 vs 26.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.64
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$35.25
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$33.91
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24â26)
$38.08
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.5, Growth: 8.7%)
$48.96
(+29%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.7%)
$41.79
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 8.7%)
$35.52
(-7%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.03
Bull Case
$65.35
(+72%)
Analyst growth 57.3%, PE expands to 40.3
Base Case
$59.41
(+56%)
Market implied 57.3%, PE stable at 36.7
Bear Case
$25.68
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.5 to 26.4
Stabilization Target:
$42.77
(+12.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NSSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard Soloway
SELL
129682 shares
2026-03-02
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