Napco Security Technologies (NSSC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NSSC - Napco Security Technologies, Inc
$36.26
0.75 (2.11%)
▲
5d:
-2.13%
30d:
-6.71%
90d:
-0.47%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NSSC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NSSC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.07
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NSSC is currently trading at $36.26, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.85 to $39.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.4) compared to its historical average (26.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NSSC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $34.65, while resistance sits at $37.48.
Market Sentiment: NSSC scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.67 (+39.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NSSC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $34.65, while resistance sits at $37.48.
Market Sentiment: NSSC scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.67 (+39.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$35.85 -
$39.42
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (62/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.7% below Wall St target ($50.67)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 62/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.85 -
$39.42
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.65
Resistance Level
$37.48
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.38
Wall Street Target
$50.67
(+39.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.4%
Profit Margin
21.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.4 vs 26.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.45
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$32.72
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$31.09
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→26)
$36.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.7%)
$46.60
(+29%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.7%)
$42.00
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 8.7%)
$35.70
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.19
Bull Case
$53.18
(+47%)
Analyst growth 36.1%, PE expands to 32.8
Base Case
$48.34
(+33%)
Market implied 36.1%, PE stable at 29.8
Bear Case
$24.15
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.4 to 26.1
Stabilization Target:
$42.28
(+16.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 9:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NSSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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