ADT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADT - ADT Inc.
$6.56
-0.03 (-0.46%)
▼
5d:
-2.09%
30d:
-6.29%
90d:
-0.15%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ADT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.52
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADT is currently trading at $6.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.63 to $6.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.8) compared to its historical average (7.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 26.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.16 (+24.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.16 (+24.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6.63 -
$6.90
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.4% below Wall St target ($8.16)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.63 -
$6.90
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.45
Resistance Level
$6.90
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.77
Wall Street Target
$8.16
(+24.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.4%
Profit Margin
12.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 7.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.28
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$6.02
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$5.77
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$6.56
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.0%)
$25.10
(+283%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 6.0%)
$7.81
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 6.0%)
$6.64
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.76
Bull Case
$9.24
(+41%)
Analyst growth 27.4%, PE expands to 9.5
Base Case
$8.40
(+28%)
Market implied 27.4%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$4.48
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 7.7
Stabilization Target:
$7.46
(+13.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 1:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David A Scott
BUY
7300 shares
2026-03-05
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