ADT (ADT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADT - ADT Inc.
$6.90
-0.09 (-1.29%)
▼
5d:
+0.44%
30d:
+8.49%
90d:
-3.5%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.61
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADT is currently trading at $6.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.28 to $6.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.0) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $7.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADT scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.13 (+17.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $7.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ADT scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.13 (+17.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$6.28 -
$6.90
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($8.13)
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.28 -
$6.90
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.41
Resistance Level
$7.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.00
Wall Street Target
$8.13
(+17.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Profit Margin
11.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.76
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$6.61
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$6.47
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$6.93
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.8%)
$23.84
(+246%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 6.8%)
$8.41
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 6.8%)
$7.15
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.73
Bull Case
$10.09
(+44%)
Analyst growth 35.0%, PE expands to 10.3
Base Case
$9.18
(+31%)
Market implied 35.0%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$4.62
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$7.39
(+7.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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