ADT (ADT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADT - ADT Inc.
$7.05
0.04 (0.57%)
▲
5d:
-6.13%
30d:
-3.56%
90d:
+4.91%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ADT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.74
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADT is currently trading at $7.05, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.22 to $7.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.2) is in line with its historical norms (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADT scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.23 (+16.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.97. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADT scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.23 (+16.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.22 -
$7.63
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (24/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($8.23)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.22 -
$7.63
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.97
Resistance Level
$7.62
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.16
Wall Street Target
$8.23
(+16.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Profit Margin
11.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 7.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.92
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$6.78
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$6.66
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$7.07
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 6.8%)
$24.21
(+243%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: 6.8%)
$8.59
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 6.8%)
$7.30
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.72
Bull Case
$10.55
(+50%)
Analyst growth 36.8%, PE expands to 10.7
Base Case
$9.59
(+36%)
Market implied 36.8%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$4.77
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$7.49
(+6.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 9:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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