ADT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADT - ADT Inc.
$7.38
0.01 (0.14%)
▲
5d:
-1.47%
30d:
+8.21%
90d:
+5.43%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.74
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADT is currently trading at $7.38, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.96 to $7.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.5) is in line with its historical norms (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADT scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.23 (+11.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADT scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.23 (+11.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$6.96 -
$7.61
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($8.23)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 60/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.96 -
$7.61
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.18
Resistance Level
$7.60
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.49
Wall Street Target
$8.23
(+11.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Profit Margin
11.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 7.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.35
(0%)
2-Year Target
$7.32
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$7.29
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$7.40
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 6.8%)
$24.09
(+227%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 6.8%)
$8.99
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 6.8%)
$7.64
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.72
Bull Case
$11.09
(+50%)
Analyst growth 36.8%, PE expands to 11.3
Base Case
$10.08
(+37%)
Market implied 36.8%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$5.01
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$7.49
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 8:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David A Scott
BUY
7300 shares
2026-03-05
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