ADT (ADT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADT - ADT Inc.
$6.25
0.02 (0.32%)
▲
5d:
-2.34%
30d:
-16.56%
90d:
-7.41%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ADT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.61
Based on 5.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADT is currently trading at $6.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.44 to $7.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.3) compared to its historical average (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $6.03, while resistance sits at $6.94.
Market Sentiment: ADT scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.23 (+31.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $6.03, while resistance sits at $6.94.
Market Sentiment: ADT scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.23 (+31.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$6.44 -
$7.42
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.7% below Wall St target ($8.23)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 31% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.44 -
$7.42
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.03
Resistance Level
$6.94
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.34
Wall Street Target
$8.23
(+31.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Profit Margin
11.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 7.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.91
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$5.58
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$5.27
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$6.24
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 6.8%)
$24.49
(+292%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 6.8%)
$7.62
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 6.8%)
$6.47
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.74
Bull Case
$9.12
(+46%)
Analyst growth 33.1%, PE expands to 9.3
Base Case
$8.29
(+33%)
Market implied 33.1%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$4.24
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$7.39
(+18.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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