ADT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADT - ADT Inc.
$6.73
-0.05 (-0.74%)
▼
5d:
-2.6%
30d:
+0.15%
90d:
-2.04%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
7d
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1 traders called ADT this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.39
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADT is currently trading at $6.73, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.52 to $6.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.0) is in line with its historical norms (7.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 26.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.40, while resistance sits at $6.94.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (50/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.16 (+21.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.40, while resistance sits at $6.94.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (50/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $8.16 (+21.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$6.52 -
$6.80
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.2% below Wall St target ($8.16)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$6.52 -
$6.80
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.40
Resistance Level
$6.94
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.95
Wall Street Target
$8.16
(+21.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.4%
Profit Margin
12.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 7.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.53
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$6.33
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$6.14
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$6.72
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.0%)
$25.10
(+273%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 6.0%)
$8.01
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 6.0%)
$6.81
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.77
Bull Case
$9.38
(+39%)
Analyst growth 25.8%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$8.53
(+27%)
Market implied 25.8%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$4.61
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 7.6
Stabilization Target:
$7.36
(+9.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David A Scott
BUY
7300 shares
2026-03-05
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