Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.56
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.25
3.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
Valuation Analysis: AES is currently trading at $14.77, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.71 to $14.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.2) is in line with its historical norms (6.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AES scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
AES is a global power company that operates in 15 countries. Its generation portfolio totals over 32 gigawatts, including renewable energy (50%), gas (32%), coal (16%), and oil (2%). AES has majority ownership and operates six electric utilities distributing power to more than 2.5 million customers.
