AES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AES - AES Corporation
$14.76
-0.02 (-0.14%)
▼
5d:
+1.3%
30d:
+0.89%
90d:
+2.57%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
16d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AES is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AES is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.43
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AES is currently trading at $14.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.61 to $14.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.2) is in line with its historical norms (6.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $14.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AES has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $14.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AES has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.61 -
$14.72
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AES? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.61 -
$14.72
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.53
Resistance Level
$14.82
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.20
Wall Street Target
$15.00
(+1.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
951.1%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
6.2 vs 6.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.77
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$14.79
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$14.80
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.80
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.1%)
$60.16
(+308%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.2, Growth: 5.1%)
$17.13
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 5.1%)
$14.56
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.93
Bull Case
$19.98
(+35%)
Analyst growth 23.3%, PE expands to 8.4
Base Case
$18.16
(+23%)
Market implied 23.3%, PE stable at 7.6
Bear Case
$10.02
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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