AMPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMPH - Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$21.78
0.74 (3.52%)
▲
5d:
+15.79%
30d:
+14.03%
90d:
+11.52%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 26, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AMPH is 7.1% above its trading range ($20.34). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AMPH is 7.1% above its trading range ($20.34). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.17
Based on 10.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.22
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMPH is currently trading at $21.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.32 to $20.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.9) is in line with its historical norms (6.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMPH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMPH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$18.32 -
$20.34
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.1% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($22.83)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.6% growth with 0.4% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Extended 7.1% above its trading range - wait for pullback
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.32 -
$20.34
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.22
Resistance Level
$22.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 26, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.93
Wall Street Target
$22.83
(+4.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-72.5%
Profit Margin
11.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.13
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$22.48
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$22.84
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.2%)
$110.30
(+406%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 17.2%)
$35.10
(+61%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 17.2%)
$29.83
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.66
Bull Case
$43.81
(+101%)
Analyst growth 89.3%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$39.83
(+83%)
Market implied 89.3%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$14.31
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 27, 2026 7:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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