AMPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMPH - Amphastar Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$18.12
-0.33 (-1.79%)
▼
5d:
-5.13%
30d:
-20.32%
90d:
-9.22%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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1 traders called AMPH this week
0% bullish • 1 bearish
0% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.70
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.41
22.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMPH is currently trading at $18.12, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.50 to $21.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.6) compared to its historical average (6.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.33 (+26.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.33 (+26.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$17.50 -
$21.85
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.5% below Wall St target ($23.33)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.1% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.50 -
$21.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.70
Resistance Level
$19.55
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.63
Wall Street Target
$23.33
(+26.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-72.5%
Profit Margin
11.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.6 vs 6.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.44
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$16.48
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$15.57
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$18.53
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 19.1%)
$121.26
(+557%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: 19.1%)
$31.17
(+69%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 19.1%)
$26.49
(+44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.66
Bull Case
$41.47
(+115%)
Analyst growth 97.4%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$37.70
(+95%)
Market implied 97.4%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$12.99
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.6 to 6.7
Stabilization Target:
$21.95
(+19.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 4:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rong Zhou
SELL
9787 shares
2025-12-17
Floyd F Petersen
SELL
2426 shares
2025-12-12
Floyd F Petersen
SELL
1737 shares
2025-12-11
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