AOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOS - A.O. Smith Corporation
$62.53
1.80 (2.96%)
▲
5d:
-2.32%
30d:
+0.12%
90d:
+6.23%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AOS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AOS shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$87.92
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.59
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOS is currently trading at $62.52, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $59.40 to $62.18. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.8) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $58.12, while resistance sits at $64.77.
Market Sentiment: AOS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $69.91 (+15.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $58.12, while resistance sits at $64.77.
Market Sentiment: AOS has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $69.91 (+15.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$59.40 -
$62.18
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($69.91)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$59.40 -
$62.18
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.13
Resistance Level
$64.77
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.80
Wall Street Target
$69.91
(+15.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.76
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$58.80
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$57.86
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$60.61
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 9.4%)
$111.27
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 9.4%)
$79.42
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 9.4%)
$67.50
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.59
Bull Case
$75.62
(+25%)
Analyst growth 14.3%, PE expands to 18.4
Base Case
$68.75
(+13%)
Market implied 14.3%, PE stable at 16.8
Bear Case
$40.89
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.8 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$63.62
(+4.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 2:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Darrell W Schuh
SELL
1104 shares
2026-03-04
Darrell W Schuh
SELL
356 shares
2026-02-13
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